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Free Tool Algorithm updated: Feb 2026

Correct Score Calculator 2026

Calculate correct score probabilities using Poisson distribution and expected goals (xG)

EV
Developed by Evgeniy Volkov

Expected Goals Input

Match Scenarios

Match Outcome Probabilities

Home Win43.7%
Draw25.48%
Away Win30.22%

Score Probabilities

Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability12.1%@8.26

Top 15 Most Likely Scores

1-1
12.1%
@8.27
1-0
10.08%
@9.92
2-1
9.07%
@11.02
0-1
8.06%
@12.4
2-0
7.56%
@13.23
1-2
7.26%
@13.78
0-0
6.72%
@14.88
2-2
5.44%
@18.37
0-2
4.84%
@20.67
3-1
4.54%
@22.04
3-0
3.78%
@26.45
1-3
2.9%
@34.44
3-2
2.72%
@36.74
2-3
2.18%
@45.93
0-3
1.94%
@51.67

Value Betting Tip

Compare these fair odds with bookmaker odds. If the bookmaker offers higher odds than shown here, you may have found a value bet.

Poisson Distribution Formulas

The mathematics behind correct score calculation

Poisson Formula

P(k) = (λ^k × e^-λ) / k!

λ = expected goals, k = actual goals, e = 2.71828

Score Probability

P(H-A) = P(Home=H) × P(Away=A)

P(2-1) = P(Home=2) × P(Away=1)

Fair Odds

Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

12.5% probability = 100/12.5 = 8.00 fair odds

xG Interpretation

xG represents expected goals per match

1.5 xG = average 1.5 goals expected

How Correct Score Calculator Works

1

Enter Expected Goals

Input the xG (expected goals) for both home and away teams. Use data from sites like Understat, FBref, or bookmaker projections.

2

Poisson Calculation

The calculator applies Poisson distribution to each team's xG separately, calculating the probability of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3+ goals.

3

Score Matrix

Probabilities for each team are combined to create a full score matrix showing all possible score outcomes.

4

Fair Odds

Each score probability is converted to fair odds. Compare with bookmaker odds to find value betting opportunities.

Common xG Scenarios

Typical expected goals ranges for different match types

Match TypeHome xGAway xGMost Likely
Low scoring (defensive)0.80.71-0 / 0-0
Balanced match1.51.21-1 / 2-1
Home dominant2.20.82-0 / 2-1
High scoring2.52.02-2 / 3-2
Away dominant0.91.80-2 / 1-2

Pro Tips

📈

Use Recent xG Data

Use xG from the last 5-10 matches for accuracy. Season-long averages may not reflect current form.

🏠

Account for Home Advantage

Home teams typically score 0.2-0.3 more xG than away. Factor this into your xG inputs if using neutral data.

💰

Compare Multiple Scorelines

Don't just bet the most likely score. Look for value across 3-4 probable scorelines for better coverage.

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure that quantifies the quality of goal-scoring chances. It's based on historical data of similar shots and their conversion rates. An xG of 1.5 means the team created chances that would typically result in 1.5 goals.
The Poisson model is reasonably accurate for predicting goal distributions, especially when goals are independent events. However, it doesn't account for factors like team form, injuries, or tactical changes. It's best used as one of several tools in your analysis.
Free xG data is available from sites like Understat, FBref, and FotMob. Premium data can be found at Opta, StatsBomb, and Wyscout. Many bookmakers also publish projected xG in their markets.
Compare the fair odds from this calculator with bookmaker odds. If the bookmaker offers odds higher than the fair odds, you may have found value. For example, if fair odds are 8.00 but the bookmaker offers 10.00, that's a potential value bet.
The top 15 scores shown don't represent all possibilities. Rare high-scoring outcomes like 5-4 or 6-3 also have small probabilities. The full matrix of all scores (0-0 through 9-9) would sum to 100%.
Yes, but you'll need to adjust xG values based on the current score and time remaining. Reduce each team's xG proportionally to the remaining time and add/subtract for goals already scored.
Correct score betting requires predicting exact outcomes rather than just match results. Even the most likely score typically has only 10-15% probability, making it inherently risky but offering high rewards.

About Our Correct Score Calculator

Our professional correct score calculator uses the Poisson distribution to calculate accurate probabilities for all possible match scores. Simply enter the expected goals (xG) for each team, and instantly see which scorelines are most likely to occur.

The Pro mode offers advanced analysis including a full score matrix, over/under market probabilities, and both teams to score odds. Compare calculated fair odds with bookmaker offerings to identify value betting opportunities in correct score markets.

This calculator is 100% free, calculates in real-time as you adjust xG values, and requires no registration. Updated for 2026 with refined Poisson algorithms used by professional bettors worldwide.

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Evgeniy Volkov

Evgeny Volkov

Verified Expert
Math & Software Engineer, iGaming Expert

Over 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.

Experience10+
SpecializationiGaming
Status
Active
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