# Player Not to Score Touchdown Bet: How to Check the Price on No

> Understand a player not to score touchdown bet, check the price on no, and see what a 9.14% hold and an expected result of -9.14 per 100 mean.

- Source: https://toolsgambling.com/blog/player-not-to-score-touchdown-bet
- Publisher: ToolsGambling
- Published: 2026-10-26
- Updated: 2026-10-26
- Cite as: "Player Not to Score Touchdown Bet: Odds and Margin Explained", ToolsGambling, https://toolsgambling.com/blog/player-not-to-score-touchdown-bet

A player not to score a touchdown bet pays if the named player does not score a touchdown in the game, and loses if he does. Action Network's September 2024 review listed DraftKings' Lamar Jackson prices at -340 for no and +205 for yes: a 9.14% hold.

The price on no comes from a probability, but the built-in margin only becomes visible when you add both sides. The assumption that matters most is **X, the true probability of a touchdown**: at -340, the breakeven threshold is **22.73%**. Below that threshold, the calculation favors no; above it, it does not.

These are 2024 prices, not current offers. The settlement rule for the no side was not found at ESPN BET or DraftKings, so check your operator's rules before betting.

## What is this bet?

This is a player prop on a named player not scoring a touchdown during the game. It is also a prop bet on the opposite outcome to that player scoring.

Probability and price are separate questions. A player might finish without a touchdown more often than he scores, yet the price on no can still be too short to justify the risk. Winning frequently does not help if the winning profit is too small relative to the amount lost when the player scores.

This bet is not about the team's touchdown total or the game's final score. Its subject is the named player and that one event.

## Where is the no side offered?

According to Action Network's review, updated 5 September 2024, ESPN BET offered the no side from 2023 and DraftKings from 2024, while SuperBook stopped offering it.

That is a historical availability report, not confirmation that the market is available today. Look for both scoring and not scoring for the same player in the same game.

If an operator offers only an anytime touchdown bet, you have only the yes price. As Action Network explains, the bookmaker sets the price in that one-sided market. A single price is not enough to measure the margin across the opposing outcomes.

## How do odds become probability?

Implied probability is one divided by decimal odds. It describes the probability embedded in the price, not an independent estimate of what will happen on the field.

In the Lamar Jackson example, American odds of +205 correspond to decimal odds of 3.05 and an implied probability of 32.79%. The -340 price corresponds to decimal odds of 1.294 and an implied probability of 77.27%. The [implied probability calculator](https://toolsgambling.com/betting/implied-probability) helps with this conversion.

American odds and decimal odds express the same price in different formats. For an explanation of the minus sign and the distinction between gross return and winning profit, see [how betting odds work](https://toolsgambling.com/blog/how-betting-odds-work).

Without a margin, the probabilities of opposite outcomes add up to 100%. When the implied probabilities sum to more than 100%, the prices contain a margin. Looking only at the short price on no misses this relationship.

## Worked example: Lamar Jackson at DraftKings

The +205 and -340 pair produces a combined implied probability of **110.06%**, an overround of **10.06 percentage points**, and a **9.14% hold**. Under proportional margin removal, the expected result per 100 staked on either side is **-9.14**. A different estimate of the true touchdown probability X gives a different result; the sign flips at the 22.73% breakeven threshold (see the table below).

Overround and hold describe the same pricing margin in different ways. Overround is the excess over the full probability. Hold equals one minus the reciprocal of the sum of implied probabilities. You can check both figures with the [margin calculator](https://toolsgambling.com/betting/margin-calculator).

Proportional margin removal divides each implied probability by their combined total. This gives fair probabilities of 29.79% for yes and 70.21% for no, with fair odds of 1.424 on no.

Here, **9.14% is the calculated hold**, while **-9.14 is the expected loss per 100 staked** when those fair probabilities are assumed. Neither figure predicts an individual result or identifies a winning bet. Under this assumption, expected value (EV) is the same on both sides.

The decimal odds and percentages below are rounded as shown. Recalculating from an already rounded decimal price can change the last digits, so use the figures together.

| Measure | Scores a touchdown | Does not score a touchdown |
|---|---:|---:|
| American odds | +205 | -340 |
| Decimal odds | 3.05 | 1.294 |
| Implied probability | 32.79% | 77.27% |
| Fair probability | 29.79% | 70.21% |
| Fair odds on no | — | 1.424 |
| Expected result per 100 at fair probabilities | -9.14 | -9.14 |

![Diagram: the prices +205 and -340 convert to 32.79% and 77.27%, which sum to 110.06%, a 9.14% bookmaker hold](https://toolsgambling.com/media/article/2026/10/6e59a05481974912bbcc3b2c2e50f4f0.webp)

*Educational diagram from the DraftKings prices in Action Network's September 2024 review. Not an operator screen.*

## Why does subtracting the probability from one give the wrong price?

Subtracting a true probability from one gives the probability of the opposite event, but the raw implied probability in bookmaker odds already includes margin.

The naive calculation is 1 − 32.79% = 67.21%. That produces a no price of 1.488, whereas the bookmaker offered 1.294. The difference reflects the margin that this simple subtraction does not account for across the pair of prices.

After proportional margin removal, the probability of no is 70.21%, not 67.21%. That is still an estimate derived from the market, not an established probability of a future event. The guide to [how to remove the margin from odds](https://toolsgambling.com/blog/no-vig-calculator) explains the distinction between the bookmaker's offer and no-vig odds.

The practical sequence is to collect both prices, remove the margin, and then compare the resulting estimate with an independently justified probability.

## What changes the conclusion?

The decisive assumption is X, the true probability that the player scores a touchdown. For 100 staked on no at -340, a win produces 29.41 in profit and a loss costs 100.

Expected value combines the probability of no touchdown multiplied by 29.41, minus the probability of a touchdown multiplied by 100. Gross return includes the returned stake; this calculation uses winning profit instead.

**EV = (1 − X) × 29.41 − X × 100**

| True touchdown probability X | Expected result for 100 on no |
|---|---:|
| 20% | +3.53 |
| 22.73% | 0 |
| 25% | -2.94 |
| 29.79% — fair probability from the line | -9.14 |
| 32.79% — raw implied probability of yes | -13.02 |
| 35% | -15.88 |

The 22.73% threshold shows how low the touchdown probability must be for -340 to break even. The positive result at X = 20% does not establish that this assumption is correct. The table tests the consequences of a probability estimate; it does not prove the estimate.

## A second line: CeeDee Lamb at ESPN BET

The CeeDee Lamb example has a different price structure: -110 on yes and -125 on no produce a 7.35% hold.

This Seahawks–Cowboys line comes from the same Action Network review. It concerns a different game and date, so comparison with Lamar Jackson illustrates price differences between operators, not evidence that one operator is consistently cheaper.

| Measure | Scores a touchdown | Does not score a touchdown |
|---|---:|---:|
| American odds | -110 | -125 |
| Decimal odds | 1.909 | 1.8 |
| Implied probability | 52.38% | 55.56% |

The combined implied probability is 107.94%. After proportional margin removal, the fair probability of no is 51.47%.

The 44.44% breakeven threshold for no at -125 refers to the probability of **a touchdown**, the opposite event. Do not compare it directly with a probability of no touchdown: both estimates must describe the same side.

## What counts as a touchdown?

This describes the anytime touchdown scorer market—the “yes” side—not settlement of the “no” side. According to gambling.com's “Anytime Touchdown Scorer” explanation, the player usually qualifies by catching the ball in the end zone or carrying it there. That text does not say how an operator settles the “no” side, and operators word their terms differently. It does not describe throwing a touchdown pass as a basis for qualifying as the touchdown scorer.

Do not automatically treat involvement in a touchdown pass as satisfying a bet on that player's touchdown. The sporting event and the terms used to settle a bet are separate matters.

## Why should you check a parlay price separately?

The review's parlay example **does not match the product of its individual legs**. It should be treated as a warning to check the price, not as evidence of an attractive offer.

Action Network lists no-touchdown legs for Brandin Cooks at -310, DaRon Bland at -20,000, Geno Smith at -1,700, and Jalen Tolbert at -800. The review gives a parlay price of -115, or decimal odds of 1.870. Multiplying the legs gives about -171, or decimal odds of 1.583.

The review does not explain the gap. To check a price, convert each leg to decimal odds and multiply them, or use the [parlay calculator](https://toolsgambling.com/betting/parlay-calculator). Compare that result with the operator's quoted price and establish why they differ before placing the bet.

## Limits of the calculation

This calculation checks a price; it does not guarantee profit. Removing the margin carefully does not turn market prices into knowledge of future outcomes.

Projected touchdowns are not probabilities of at least one touchdown. Moving from a projected count to an event probability requires further justification, so a touchdown projection cannot simply replace X.

The table and the threshold assume no refund: if the operator returns the stake, for example when a player is inactive, the threshold and EV change and must be recalculated. Establish in advance when the operator applies a void or push. These mean the stake is returned, not that the bet wins. Until those conditions are clear, you have checked the price but not all the terms of the bet.

## FAQ

### Where do I check the settlement rules for a no bet?

In your bookmaker's market rules for that exact line. A general guide cannot replace them, because operators word settlement differently.

### Can I find fair odds on no when only yes is available?

Not uniquely. One price does not reveal how the bookmaker allocated its margin between opposite outcomes. An independent valuation requires your own justified event probability.

### Do negative American odds mean the bet is bad?

No. The sign alone does not determine expected value. What matters is the relationship between the price and the event probability.

### What should I do if a parlay price differs from the product of its legs?

Do not assume the discrepancy is an edge. Check the selected legs and their prices, then ask the operator to clarify the offer's terms. The difference alone does not establish which price applies to your bet.

## FAQ

### Where do I check the settlement rules for a no bet?

In your bookmaker's market rules for that exact line. A general guide cannot replace them, because operators word settlement differently.

### Can I find fair odds on no when only yes is available?

Not uniquely. One price does not reveal how the bookmaker allocated its margin between opposite outcomes. An independent valuation requires your own justified event probability.

### Do negative American odds mean the bet is bad?

No. The sign alone does not determine expected value. What matters is the relationship between the price and the event probability.

### What should I do if a parlay price differs from the product of its legs?

Do not assume the discrepancy is an edge. Check the selected legs and their prices, then ask the operator to clarify the offer's terms. The difference alone does not establish which price applies to your bet.