[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"term-betting-expected-value-de":3,"related-expected-value-de":51,"mdc--4ougjw-key":72},{"id":4,"slug":5,"status":6,"section":7,"category":8,"difficulty":9,"aliases":10,"related_terms":17,"related_calculators":23,"term":27,"definition":28,"content":29,"example":30,"faq":31,"availableLocales":44},"ec8499ac-7c1e-4930-a4ba-2fa5c6cc68b1","expected-value","published","betting","strategies","intermediate",[11,12,13,14,15,16],"EV","+EV","-EV","positive expected value","negative expected value","expected profit",[18,19,20,21,22],"value-bet","odds","implied-probability","kelly-criterion","roi",[24,25,26],"\u002Fbetting\u002Fvalue-bet-calculator","\u002Fbetting\u002Fvalue-bet-finder","\u002Fbetting\u002Fkelly-calculator","Erwartungswert (EV)","Der durchschnittliche Gewinn oder Verlust, den du langfristig von einer Wette erwarten kannst, berechnet durch Multiplikation des Werts jedes Ergebnisses mit seiner Wahrscheinlichkeit — die wichtigste Zahl, die erfolgreiche Wetter von allen anderen unterscheidet.","## Was ist der Erwartungswert?\n\nStell dir vor: Du scrollst durch die Quoten für das morgige Spiel. Option A: Setze auf den Favoriten bei 1,50 Quote. Option B: Nimm den Außenseiter bei 3,00 Quote. Dein Bauchgefühl schreit \"der Favorit ist sicherer!\" Aber hier ist die unbequeme Wahrheit — dein Bauchgefühl hat keine Ahnung, welche Wette tatsächlich Geld bringt.\n\n**Die Millionen-Euro-Frage:** Welche Wette füllt langfristig dein Konto?\n\nDie Antwort dreht sich nicht darum, wer heute Abend gewinnt. Es geht nicht um Ahnungen, Glückssträhnen oder \"ein gutes Gefühl\". Es geht um den **Erwartungswert** — eine nüchterne, mathematische Berechnung, die dir genau sagt, wie viel jede Wette wert ist.\n\n> **Einfach ausgedrückt:** Der Erwartungswert ist der durchschnittliche Gewinn oder Verlust, den du sehen würdest, wenn du dieselbe Wette millionenfach platzieren würdest. Positiver EV (+EV) bedeutet langfristigen Gewinn. Negativer EV (-EV) bedeutet langfristigen Verlust. EV von Null bedeutet Break-even.\n\nNach dem Lesen wirst du verstehen, warum manche Wetten Geld verdienen, selbst wenn du verlierst, und warum andere Wetten Geld verlieren, selbst wenn du gewinnst.\n\n## TL;DR - Kurzübersicht\n\n| Konzept | Erklärung |\n|---------|-----------|\n| **Was es ist** | Durchschnittlicher Gewinn\u002FVerlust pro Wette bei unendlichen Wiederholungen |\n| **+EV (Positiver EV)** | Du verdienst langfristig Geld, auch wenn du heute verlierst |\n| **-EV (Negativer EV)** | Du verlierst langfristig Geld, auch wenn du heute gewinnst |\n| **0 EV (Break-even)** | Kein Vorteil für keine Seite — der faire Preis |\n| **Die Formel** | EV = (Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit × Profit) − (Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit × Einsatz) |\n| **Wichtigste Erkenntnis** | Jede Wette hat einen EV — die meisten sind negativ |\n\n**Die goldene Regel:** Wette nur, wenn der EV positiv ist. Alles andere ist Unterhaltung, keine Investition.\n\n---\n\n## Erwartungswert für Anfänger verstehen\n\nDenk an EV so: Wenn du dieselbe Wette **eine Million Mal** platzieren könntest, sagt dir der EV, wie viel du pro Wette im Durchschnitt verdienen würdest.\n\n### Die Münzwurf-Analogie\n\nStell dir ein einfaches Spiel vor. Du wirfst eine faire Münze:\n- Kopf: Du gewinnst 2€\n- Zahl: Du verlierst 1€\n\n**Was ist dein EV?**\n\n- 50% Chance auf 2€ Gewinn = **+1,00€**\n- 50% Chance auf 1€ Verlust = **−0,50€**\n- **EV = +0,50€ pro Wurf**\n\nWürdest du diese Münze den ganzen Tag werfen? Absolut! Jeder Wurf bringt durchschnittlich +0,50€ Gewinn. Das ist **positiver EV**.\n\nJetzt stell dir die Casino-Version vor:\n- Kopf: Du gewinnst 1€\n- Zahl: Du verlierst 1,10€\n\n**Was ist dein EV?**\n\n- 50% × +1,00€ = **+0,50€**\n- 50% × −1,10€ = **−0,55€**\n- **EV = −0,05€ pro Wurf**\n\nDieser winzige 5-Cent-Nachteil pro Wurf ist der Grund, warum Casinos Marmorböden und goldene Kronleuchter haben. Negativer EV, tausende Male wiederholt, blutet dich aus.\n\n### Warum EV wichtiger ist als Ergebnisse\n\nHier ist der Teil, der die meisten Wetter verwirrt:\n\n**Du kannst eine +EV-Wette platzieren und verlieren.**\n**Du kannst eine -EV-Wette platzieren und gewinnen.**\n\nEine einzelne Wette sagt nichts über die Qualität aus. EV misst die **Entscheidung**, nicht das Ergebnis. Ein Neurochirurg, der alles perfekt macht, aber einen Patienten verliert, hat keine schlechte Entscheidung getroffen. Varianz bei Wetten funktioniert genauso.\n\n---\n\n## Die Mathematik des Erwartungswerts\n\n::chart-ev-comparison\n::\n\n**Die EV-Formel:**\n\n$$EV = (P_{win} \\times Profit) - (P_{lose} \\times Stake)$$\n\nOder die vereinfachte Version für Dezimalquoten:\n\n$$EV = Stake \\times (P_{win} \\times Odds - 1)$$\n\nWobei:\n- **P_win** = Deine geschätzte Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit\n- **P_lose** = 1 − P_win (Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit)\n- **Profit** = (Quote − 1) × Einsatz\n- **Odds** = Dezimalquote des Buchmachers\n\n### Praxisbeispiel 1: Eine Value-Wette finden (+EV)\n\n**Situation:**\n- Deine Analyse sagt, Team A gewinnt zu 55%\n- Der Buchmacher bietet Quote 2,00 (impliziert 50% Wahrscheinlichkeit)\n- Dein Einsatz: 100€\n\n**EV-Berechnung:**\n\n$$EV = 100€ \\times (0,55 \\times 2,00 - 1)$$\n$$EV = 100€ \\times (1,10 - 1)$$\n$$EV = 100€ \\times 0,10 = +10€$$\n\nFür jeden 100€-Einsatz in genau dieser Situation erwartest du durchschnittlich 10€ Gewinn. **Das ist eine Value-Wette** — positiver EV, weil dein Vorteil (55%) über dem liegt, was die Quoten implizieren (50%).\n\n### Praxisbeispiel 2: Die Anfänger-Falle (-EV)\n\n**Situation:**\n- Realität: Team B gewinnt zu 45%\n- Der Buchmacher bietet Quote 2,00 (impliziert 50% Wahrscheinlichkeit)\n- Dein Einsatz: 100€\n\n**EV-Berechnung:**\n\n$$EV = 100€ \\times (0,45 \\times 2,00 - 1)$$\n$$EV = 100€ \\times (0,90 - 1)$$\n$$EV = 100€ \\times (-0,10) = -10€$$\n\nDu würdest langfristig 10€ für jeden eingesetzten 100€ verlieren. Der \"Value\" gehört dem Buchmacher, nicht dir.\n\n---\n\n## Warum der Erwartungswert für Wetter wichtig ist\n\n### 1. Es ist das Einzige, was langfristig zählt\n\nKurzfristig kann alles passieren. Ein Affe, der Dartpfeile wirft, kann eine heiße Woche haben. Aber die Mathematik gewinnt am Ende immer.\n\n| Platzierte Wetten | +5% EV Ergebnisse | -5% EV Ergebnisse |\n|-------------------|-------------------|-------------------|\n| 10 Wetten | Starke Schwankungen | Starke Schwankungen |\n| 100 Wetten | Vorteil wird sichtbar | Verluste werden sichtbar |\n| 1.000 Wetten | Klar profitabel | Klar unprofitabel |\n| 10.000 Wetten | Unvermeidlicher Gewinn | Unvermeidlicher Verlust |\n\n**Das Gesetz der großen Zahlen garantiert es.** Positive EV-Wetten werden langfristig profitabel. Negative EV-Wetten werden zu Verlusten. Keine Ausnahmen.\n\n### 2. Es trennt Zocker von Investoren\n\n**Zocker** wetten basierend auf: Gefühlen, Lieblingsteams, \"heißen\" Tipps, was Spaß macht, was groß auszahlt.\n\n**Wett-Investoren** wetten basierend auf: berechnetem EV, identifizierten Vorteilen, Informationsvorsprung.\n\nDer Unterschied? Zocker spenden Geld an Buchmacher. Investoren schöpfen Geld aus dem Markt ab.\n\n### 3. Es erklärt, warum die meisten Wetter verlieren\n\nDie Standard-Buchmachermarge beträgt 4-8%. Das bedeutet:\n- Eine \"faire\" 50\u002F50-Wette bei Quote 2,00 → wird mit 1,91 bepreist\n- Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit: 52,4%\n- **Du brauchst über 52,4% Trefferquote nur um Break-even zu erreichen**\n\nDie meisten Wetter wissen nicht mal, was EV ist. Sie verschenken 4-8% bei jeder Wette, bevor sie überhaupt anfangen.\n\n---\n\n## Wie man positive EV-Wetten findet\n\n### Schritt 1: Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit berechnen\n\nDie Quoten des Buchmachers verraten dir, welche Wahrscheinlichkeit er einpreist:\n\n$$Implizite\\ Wahrscheinlichkeit = \\frac{1}{Dezimalquote}$$\n\n| Dezimalquote | Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit |\n|--------------|------------------------------|\n| 1,50 | 66,7% |\n| 1,80 | 55,6% |\n| 2,00 | 50,0% |\n| 2,50 | 40,0% |\n| 3,00 | 33,3% |\n| 4,00 | 25,0% |\n| 5,00 | 20,0% |\n\n### Schritt 2: Wahre Wahrscheinlichkeit einschätzen\n\nHier kommt das Können ins Spiel. Woher weißt du die \"echte\" Wahrscheinlichkeit?\n\n- **Statistische Modelle:** Baue oder nutze Modelle basierend auf historischen Daten\n- **Marktanalyse:** Scharfe Buchmacher (Pinnacle) haben effiziente Quoten\n- **Fachwissen:** Tiefes Wissen über bestimmte Ligen\u002FTeams\n- **Closing Line Value:** Wenn deine Quoten die Schlussquoten schlagen, bist du wahrscheinlich +EV\n\n### Schritt 3: Vergleichen und Berechnen\n\n**Wenn Wahre Wahrscheinlichkeit > Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit = +EV**\n\n**Beispiel:**\n- Buchmacher-Quote: 2,50 (impliziert 40%)\n- Deine wahre Wahrscheinlichkeit: 45%\n- Vorteil: 45% − 40% = **5% Vorteil**\n- EV: 100€ × (0,45 × 2,50 − 1) = **+12,50€**\n\nDas ist eine Value-Wette. Nimm sie.\n\n---\n\n## Häufige Erwartungswert-Fehler\n\n### Fehler #1: Ergebnisse mit Entscheidungsqualität verwechseln\n\n**Falsch:** \"Ich habe 100€ auf einen +EV-Spot gesetzt und verloren. EV ist Quatsch!\"\n\n**Richtig:** \"Ich habe eine +EV-Wette gemacht. Ich habe wegen Varianz verloren. Über 1.000 ähnliche Wetten werde ich profitabel sein.\"\n\n**Warum es falsch ist:** Eine einzelne Wette ist statistisch bedeutungslos. Eine 55% Trefferquote bedeutet, du verlierst 45% der Wetten. Pechsträhnen von 5-10 Wetten sind völlig normal, selbst mit starkem Vorteil.\n\n### Fehler #2: Die Marge (Buchmacher-Marge) ignorieren\n\n**Falsch:** \"50\u002F50-Spiel, ich nehme eine Seite bei Quote 1,95.\"\n\n**Richtig:** \"50\u002F50-Spiel bei 1,95 bedeutet, ich zahle 2,5% Marge. Ich brauche besser als 51,3% Trefferquote um hier profitabel zu sein.\"\n\n**Warum es falsch ist:** Die Marge ist die Steuer, die du bei jeder Wette zahlst. Ein 100€-Einsatz bei 1,95 statt fairen 2,00 kostet dich 2,50€ im Erwartungswert.\n\n### Fehler #3: Den eigenen Vorteil überschätzen\n\n**Falsch:** \"Ich bin mir zu 70% sicher, dass sie gewinnen!\" (basierend auf Bauchgefühl)\n\n**Richtig:** \"Mein Modell gibt 58% Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit basierend auf 3 Jahren Daten und diesen spezifischen Variablen.\"\n\n**Warum es falsch ist:** Scharfe Wetter investieren hunderte Stunden um 2-3% Vorteil zu finden. Zufälliges \"Selbstvertrauen\" ist keine Wahrscheinlichkeit. Verfolge deine Vorhersagen vs. Realität zur Kalibrierung.\n\n### Fehler #4: Auf -EV wetten wegen Unterhaltung\n\n**Falsch:** \"Ich weiß, diese Kombi ist -EV, aber es ist aufregend!\"\n\n**Richtig (wenn Zocker):** \"Ich behandle diese 50€ als Unterhaltungskosten, nicht als Investment.\"\n\n**Warum es wichtig ist:** Es ist nichts falsch an Freizeitwetten, aber nenn es beim Namen. Misch keine Unterhaltungswetten mit deiner +EV-Strategie.\n\n---\n\n## EV und Einsatzgröße: Kelly-Kriterium\n\n+EV zu finden reicht nicht. Du musst deine Einsätze richtig dimensionieren.\n\n**Das [Kelly-Kriterium](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fkelly-criterion)** sagt dir die optimale Einsatzgröße basierend auf deinem Vorteil:\n\n$$Kelly\\% = \\frac{(odds \\times probability) - 1}{odds - 1}$$\n\n| Dein Vorteil | Kelly-Einsatz | Praktischer Einsatz (1\u002F4 Kelly) |\n|--------------|---------------|----------------------------------|\n| 2% | 2% der Bankroll | 0,5% der Bankroll |\n| 5% | 5% der Bankroll | 1,25% der Bankroll |\n| 10% | 10% der Bankroll | 2,5% der Bankroll |\n| 20% | 20% der Bankroll | 5% der Bankroll |\n\n**Die meisten Profis nutzen Fractional Kelly (25-50%)** um die Varianz zu reduzieren und Pechsträhnen zu überstehen.\n\nNutze den [Kelly-Rechner](\u002Fbetting\u002Fkelly-calculator) um die optimale Einsatzgröße für deinen Vorteil zu bestimmen.\n\n---\n\n## Verwandte Konzepte\n\nDas Verständnis von EV verbindet sich mit mehreren wichtigen Wettkonzepten:\n\n- **[Varianz](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fvariance):** EV sagt dir, wohin du gehst; Varianz sagt dir, wie holprig die Fahrt wird. Hohe Varianz bedeutet starke Schwankungen um dein erwartetes Ergebnis.\n\n- **[Value Betting](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fvalue-betting):** Value-Wetten sind einfach +EV-Wetten. Value zu finden bedeutet positiven Erwartungswert zu finden.\n\n- **[Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fimplied-probability):** Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, die in den Buchmacher-Quoten eingebettet ist. Vergleiche mit der wahren Wahrscheinlichkeit um EV zu finden.\n\n- **[ROI (Return on Investment)](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Froi):** Deine realisierte Rendite über Zeit. Wenn deine Wetten wirklich +EV sind, wird der ROI schließlich deinem Vorteil entsprechen.\n\n- **[Closing Line Value (CLV)](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fclosing-line-value):** Wenn du konstant die Schlussquoten schlägst, machst du sehr wahrscheinlich +EV-Wetten.\n\n---\n\n## Praktische Tools\n\n### Rechner für EV-Analyse\n\nNutze diese Tools um +EV-Wetten zu finden und zu dimensionieren:\n\n1. **[Value-Wetten-Rechner](\u002Fbetting\u002Fvalue-bet-calculator)** — Berechne EV für jede Wette sofort\n2. **[Kelly-Rechner](\u002Fbetting\u002Fkelly-calculator)** — Optimale Einsatzgröße basierend auf deinem Vorteil\n3. **[Implizite-Wahrscheinlichkeit-Rechner](\u002Fbetting\u002Fimplied-probability)** — Konvertiere Quoten in Wahrscheinlichkeiten\n4. **[Edge-Analyzer](\u002Fbetting\u002Fedge-analyzer)** — Vergleiche deine Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen mit Marktquoten\n5. **[Bankroll-Wachstums-Rechner](\u002Fbetting\u002Fbankroll-growth-calculator)** — Projiziere langfristige Ergebnisse basierend auf EV\n\n### EV-fokussierte Strategie\n\n**Für Anfänger:**\n- Konzentriere dich darauf, das Konzept zu verstehen, bevor du +EV jagst\n- Verfolge jede Wette mit deiner Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzung\n- Vergleiche deine Schätzungen mit Schlussquoten\n- Starte mit kleinen Einsätzen bis du deinen Vorteil beweist\n\n**Für fortgeschrittene Wetter:**\n- Baue oder abonniere statistische Modelle\n- Verfolge [Closing Line Value](\u002Fde\u002Fglossary\u002Fbetting\u002Fclosing-line-value) als Proxy für +EV\n- Nutze Fractional Kelly für Einsatzdimensionierung\n- Spezialisiere dich auf Märkte, wo du Informationsvorsprung hast\n\n---\n\n## Wichtigste Erkenntnisse\n\n- **EV ist alles** — Die einzige Zahl, die langfristigen Gewinn oder Verlust bestimmt\n- **+EV = Gewinn über Zeit** — Auch wenn du einzelne Wetten verlierst\n- **-EV = Verlust über Zeit** — Auch wenn du einzelne Wetten gewinnst\n- **Die meisten Wetten sind -EV** — Die Buchmachermarge stellt das sicher\n- **+EV zu finden erfordert Vorteil** — Bessere Informationen, bessere Modelle oder besseres Timing\n- **Dimensioniere Einsätze richtig** — Kelly-Kriterium basierend auf deinem Vorteil\n- **Verfolge und verifiziere** — Nutze CLV um zu bestätigen, dass dein +EV real ist\n\n**Denk dran:** Der Erwartungswert interessiert sich nicht für deine Gefühle, dein Glückshemd oder welches Team du unterstützt. Es ist pure Mathematik. Akzeptiere es, und du hast eine Chance zu gewinnen. Ignoriere es, und du bist nur ein weiterer Zocker.\n\n---\n\n## FAQ\n\n### Wie viele Wetten, bis der EV \"greift\"?\n\n**Minimum 500 Wetten für Vertrauen, 1.000+ für statistische Signifikanz.** Bei Wetten mit hoher Varianz (Außenseiter) brauchst du vielleicht noch mehr. Beurteile deine Strategie nicht nach 50 Wetten — das misst nur Rauschen.\n\nNutze den [Varianz-Analyzer](\u002Fbetting\u002Fvariance-analyzer) um erwartete Schwankungen für deine spezifischen Wettarten zu verstehen.\n\n### Kann eine verlorene Wette trotzdem +EV sein?\n\n**Absolut, ja.** Das ist das Kernkonzept. EV misst Entscheidungsqualität, nicht das Ergebnis. Du kannst eine Münze mit +10€ EV werfen und verlieren — das macht es nicht zu einem schlechten Wurf. Über 1.000 Würfe wirst du Geld verdienen.\n\nDer schwierigste Teil beim Wetten ist zu akzeptieren, dass gute Entscheidungen manchmal schlechte Ergebnisse produzieren.\n\n### Woher weiß ich, ob meine Wahrscheinlichkeitsschätzungen genau sind?\n\n**Verfolge und überprüfe.** Jedes Mal wenn du \"60% Chance\" schätzt, notiere es. Nach 100+ solcher Schätzungen, prüfe: Haben tatsächlich ~60% davon gewonnen? Wenn du konstant überschätzt, korrigiere nach unten. Wenn du unterschätzt, korrigiere nach oben.\n\nScharfe Wetter verbringen Jahre damit, ihre Modelle zu kalibrieren.\n\n### Was ist ein realistischer EV zum Anstreben?\n\n**2-5% Vorteil ist Profi-Niveau.** Konstant +2% EV zu finden macht dich besser als 99% der Wetter. Behauptungen von 10%+ EV bei regulären Wetten sind meistens: kleine Stichprobe, Rosinenpickerei oder Betrug.\n\nAusnahme: Manche Promos und Boni bieten tatsächlich hohen EV für begrenzte Beträge.\n\n### Ist es möglich, Buchmacher langfristig zu schlagen?\n\n**Ja, aber schwierig.** Du brauchst:\n1. Überlegene Informationen oder Modelle\n2. Schnellere Reaktion auf Marktbewegungen\n3. Zugang zu den besten Quoten (Quotenvergleich)\n4. Disziplin nur auf +EV-Spots zu wetten\n5. Richtiges Bankroll-Management\n\nDie meisten Menschen können nicht alle fünf Punkte konstant erfüllen. Wer es kann, verdient Geld.\n\n### Warum erlauben Buchmacher immer noch +EV-Wetter?\n\n**Oft tun sie es nicht.** Scharfe Wetter werden limitiert oder gesperrt. Buchmacher verdienen Geld mit -EV-Wettern (die große Mehrheit). Scharfe Einsätze helfen ihnen sogar, bessere Linien für ihre Hauptkundschaft zu setzen.\n\nBörsen wie Betfair haben dieses Problem nicht — du wettest gegen andere Menschen, nicht gegen das Haus.\n\n---\n\n**Fazit:** Der Erwartungswert ist der Nordstern des profitablen Wettens. Jede Wette die du platzierst hat einen EV. Die meisten sind negativ. Deine Aufgabe ist die positiven zu finden, sie richtig zu dimensionieren und die Mathematik den Rest erledigen zu lassen. Ignoriere EV, und du bist nur ein weiterer Kunde, der die Gewinne des Buchmachers finanziert.",null,[32,35,38,41],{"answer":33,"question":34},"Jeder positive EV ist gut, aber professionelle Wetter zielen typischerweise auf +3% bis +10% EV pro Wette ab. Höhere EV-Wetten sind seltener und kommen oft mit niedrigeren Wettlimits. Ein konstanter +5% EV über 1.000 Wetten schafft erheblichen langfristigen Gewinn trotz einzelner Verluste.","Was ist ein guter Erwartungswert-Prozentsatz?",{"answer":36,"question":37},"Nein, eine genaue EV-Berechnung erfordert die Kenntnis der wahren Wahrscheinlichkeit, was die größte Herausforderung darstellt. Professionelle Wetter nutzen statistische Modelle, historische Daten und Marktanalysen, um wahre Wahrscheinlichkeiten genauer einzuschätzen als die implizierten Quoten der Buchmacher.","Kann man den Erwartungswert berechnen, ohne die wahre Wahrscheinlichkeit zu kennen?",{"answer":39,"question":40},"Weil der EV die einzige Kennzahl ist, die langfristige Ergebnisse unabhängig von kurzfristiger Varianz vorhersagt. Ein Wetter kann 10 Wetten hintereinander verlieren und trotzdem profitabel sein, wenn jede Wette einen positiven EV hatte. Über Tausende von Wetten nähern sich die tatsächlichen Ergebnisse dem Erwartungswert an.","Warum konzentrieren sich professionelle Wetter auf den Erwartungswert?",{"answer":42,"question":43},"Wettquoten implizieren eine Wahrscheinlichkeit. Wenn Ihre geschätzte wahre Wahrscheinlichkeit die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit übersteigt, existiert ein positiver Erwartungswert. Die Differenz zwischen Ihrer Wahrscheinlichkeit und der implizierten Wahrscheinlichkeit bestimmt den EV-Prozentsatz.","Wie hängt der Erwartungswert mit Wettquoten zusammen?",[45,46,47,48,49,50],"en","ru","pt","tr","de","es",[52,57,61,65,68],{"slug":53,"section":7,"category":19,"difficulty":54,"term":55,"definition":56},"decimal-odds","beginner","Dezimalquoten","Dezimalquoten (Europäische Quoten) geben den Gesamtgewinn pro eingesetzter Einheit an, einschließlich des ursprünglichen Einsatzes. Eine Dezimalquote von 2,50 bedeutet, dass ein Einsatz von 1 € einen Gesamtgewinn von 2,50 € (1,50 € Gewinn plus 1 € Einsatz) erzielt. Dies ist das intuitivste Quotenformat, das vorwiegend in Europa, Australien und von den meisten Online-Buchmachern verwendet wird. Dezimalquoten werden einfach als 1 geteilt durch die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit berechnet.",{"slug":20,"section":7,"category":58,"difficulty":54,"term":59,"definition":60},"fundamentals","Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit","Die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit ist die Umrechnung von Wettquoten in einen Prozentsatz, der die Einschatzung des Buchmachers uber die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Ergebnisses darstellt. Sie beantwortet die Frage: Wie oft muss dieses Ergebnis eintreten, damit die Wette kostendeckend ist? Die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit enthalt die Buchmacher-Marge.",{"slug":21,"section":7,"category":8,"difficulty":62,"term":63,"definition":64},"advanced","Kelly-Kriterium","Das Kelly-Kriterium ist eine mathematische Formel, die den optimalen Prozentsatz Ihrer Bankroll berechnet, den Sie auf eine Wette setzen sollten, basierend auf Ihrem Vorteil und den angebotenen Quoten. Es wurde 1956 von John Kelly bei Bell Labs entwickelt und maximiert das langfristige Bankroll-Wachstum bei gleichzeitiger Minimierung des Ruinrisikos. 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