Double Chance

Double Chance

Double Chance lets you back two outcomes with a single stake. Instead of predicting exactly what happens, you're betting on what won't happen. Pick 1X (Home or Draw) and you win unless the away team wins. This market sacrifices odds for probability—you'll win more often but earn less per win. It's the entry-level "safe" bet for football, popular with beginners and useful for bankroll protection in accumulators.

Table of Contents

• How Double Chance Works
• The Three Options
• Double Chance Odds
• Double Chance vs Alternatives
• When to Use Double Chance
• Strategy Guide

How Double Chance Works {#how-it-works}

In standard 1X2 betting, you pick one outcome. Double Chance covers two.

Coverage Comparison

Simple Principle

The Three Options {#options}

1X (Home or Draw)

You win if the home team wins OR the match draws. You only lose if the away team wins.

Best when:

• Home team is strong at home
• Away team struggles on the road
• You expect home advantage to matter

Example: Liverpool vs Leicester at Anfield

• Liverpool to win: 1.45
• Draw: 4.50
• Leicester to win: 7.00
• 1X (Liverpool or Draw): 1.18

Liverpool or Draw wins ~85% of the time based on implied odds.

X2 (Draw or Away)

You win if the match draws OR the away team wins. You only lose if the home team wins.

Best when:

• Away team is strong
• Home team in poor form
• Historically low home advantage

Example: Burnley vs Man City

• Burnley to win: 8.00
• Draw: 5.00
• Man City to win: 1.40
• X2 (Draw or Man City): 1.14

12 (Home or Away)

You win if either team wins outright. You only lose if the match draws.

Best when:

• Both teams need to win (relegation/title race)
• High-scoring attacking match expected
• Historically low draw rate between teams

Example: Arsenal vs Tottenham (Derby)

• Arsenal to win: 2.20
• Draw: 3.40
• Tottenham to win: 3.30
• 12 (No Draw): 1.35

Double Chance Odds {#odds}

Calculating Double Chance Odds

Double Chance odds can be derived from 1X2 odds:

Example:

• Home: 2.40
• Draw: 3.30
• Away: 2.90

DC 1X = 1 / (1/2.40 + 1/3.30) = 1 / (0.417 + 0.303) = 1 / 0.720 = 1.39

Typical Double Chance Odds

Why Odds Seem Low

Covering two outcomes means ~66% win probability.

After margin, you typically see 1.30-1.45 on balanced Double Chance bets.

Double Chance vs Alternatives {#vs-alternatives}

vs Draw No Bet

Choose DC when you want to profit from draws. Choose DNB when you want better odds and can accept push on draws.

vs Asian Handicap 0

Asian Handicap 0 = Draw No Bet. Same comparison applies.

vs Asian Handicap +0.5

Asian +0.5 is mathematically equivalent but often has better odds due to lower Asian market margins.

Comparison Table

Always check Asian +0.5 odds before taking Double Chance.

When to Use Double Chance {#when-to-use}

Good Uses

Bad Uses

Break-Even Analysis

For Double Chance to equal value of backing team outright:

Usually, straight win offers better value if you believe in the team.

Strategy Guide {#strategy}

Strategy 1: Accumulator Protection

Adding Double Chance to accumulators reduces variance:

5-Fold Accumulator

Massively different risk profiles.

Strategy 2: Covering Draws in Derbies

Derby matches historically have more draws:

Local derbies draw rate: ~28-32% Average draw rate: ~25%

For derbies, DC might offer better value than outright win.

Strategy 3: Late Season Motivation

When teams have nothing to play for, draws increase:

DC can protect against unmotivated draws.

Strategy 4: Avoid Double Chance When...

• Odds below 1.10 (risk/reward terrible)
• Asian +0.5 available at better price
• You have strong conviction on exact outcome
• Building +EV portfolio

Calculating Your Own Odds {#calculation}

From 1X2 to Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw):

X2 (Draw or Away):

12 (Home or Away):

Example Calculation

Match odds: Home 2.50, Draw 3.40, Away 2.80

DC 1X: 1 / (1/2.50 + 1/3.40) = 1 / (0.40 + 0.294) = 1.44DC X2: 1 / (1/3.40 + 1/2.80) = 1 / (0.294 + 0.357) = 1.54DC 12: 1 / (1/2.50 + 1/2.80) = 1 / (0.40 + 0.357) = 1.32

Compare these calculated "fair" odds to bookmaker's actual DC odds to find value.

Related Calculators

• Double Chance Calculator - Calculate DC outcomes
• Odds Converter - Convert between formats