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Equity is your percentage share of the pot based on the probability of winning at showdown with all remaining cards dealt. If you have 60% equity in a $100 pot, you're statistically entitled to $60 of that pot over infinite iterations. Equity drives every poker decision—calling, raising, folding, and bet sizing all depend on comparing your equity against pot odds and opponent ranges. Unlike fixed outcomes, equity represents expected value across all possible runouts.
Equity
Equity is the mathematical heart of poker—your rightful share of every pot based on probability. When you hold 40% equity, you own 40% of that pot in expected value terms, regardless of whether you win or lose this specific hand. Equity transforms poker from a game of hunches into a game of mathematical precision. Every decision—calling a bet, raising for value, folding a marginal hand—should be informed by your equity versus your opponents' ranges. Master equity, and you understand poker at its core: making decisions that maximize your expected share of every pot over time.
Table of Contents
- Understanding Equity
- Calculating Equity
- Preflop Equity
- Post-Flop Equity
- Equity vs Ranges
- Equity Realization
- Using Equity Strategically
- Common Equity Scenarios
Understanding Equity {#understanding}
What Equity Means
Simple example:
- You have A♠ A♥
- Opponent has K♠ K♥
- Your equity: ~82%
- Meaning: If this hand plays out millions of times, you win ~82%
Equity in Action
| Pot | Your Equity | Your Expected Value |
|---|---|---|
| $100 | 60% | $60 |
| $100 | 40% | $40 |
| $100 | 25% | $25 |
Equity Components
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
| Win equity | Probability of winning outright |
| Tie equity | Probability of splitting pot |
| Total equity | Win equity + (Tie equity / 2) |
Equity vs. Probability
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Equity | Your share of the pot mathematically |
| Probability | Chance of a specific outcome |
| Expected Value | Equity × Pot Size |
Calculating Equity {#calculation}
The Rule of 2 and 4
The fastest way to estimate equity from outs:
| Situation | Formula | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| One card to come (turn/river) | Outs × 2 | ~±1% |
| Two cards to come (flop) | Outs × 4 | ~±2% |
Why it works:
Outs to Equity Table
| Outs | One Card (×2) | Two Cards (×4) | Actual (Two Cards) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 4% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 4% | 8% | 8.4% |
| 4 | 8% | 16% | 16.5% |
| 6 | 12% | 24% | 24.1% |
| 8 | 16% | 32% | 31.5% |
| 9 | 18% | 36% | 35.0% |
| 10 | 20% | 40% | 38.4% |
| 12 | 24% | 48% | 45.0% |
| 15 | 30% | 60% | 54.1% |
| 20 | 40% | 80% | 67.5% |
Exact Equity Formula
For two cards to come:
For one card to come:
Counting Outs
| Draw | Outs | Cards |
|---|---|---|
| Gutshot straight | 4 | One specific rank |
| Open-ended straight | 8 | Two ranks |
| Flush draw | 9 | Remaining suited cards |
| Two overcards | 6 | 3 of each overcard |
| One overcard | 3 | 3 of that card |
| Set to full house | 7 | 3 board cards + 4 quads |
| Pair to trips | 2 | 2 remaining cards |
Combination Draws
| Draw Combination | Outs |
|---|---|
| Flush draw + gutshot | 12 (9+4, minus 1 overlap) |
| Flush draw + OESD | 15 (9+8, minus 2 overlap) |
| Flush draw + pair | 14 (9+5 remaining) |
| OESD + pair | 13 (8+5) |
Preflop Equity {#preflop}
Premium Hand Equities
| Your Hand | vs Random | vs Top 20% | vs Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 85% | 77% | 73% |
| KK | 82% | 71% | 65% |
| 80% | 66% | 58% | |
| JJ | 77% | 61% | 52% |
| AKs | 67% | 56% | 49% |
| AKo | 65% | 54% | 47% |
Classic Matchups
| Matchup | Equity |
|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 82% vs 18% |
| AA vs AKs | 87% vs 13% |
| AA vs QQ | 81% vs 19% |
| KK vs AK | 70% vs 30% |
| QQ vs AK | 57% vs 43% |
| JJ vs AK | 57% vs 43% |
| AKs vs 22 | 48% vs 52% |
| AKs vs JTs | 60% vs 40% |
| KQs vs A5o | 48% vs 52% |
| 22 vs 33 | 18% vs 82% |
Hand Category Equities
| Category | vs Random | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Pocket pairs | 80-85% | AA-22 |
| High broadway | 60-67% | AK, AQ, KQ |
| Medium broadway | 55-60% | KJ, QJ, JT |
| Suited connectors | 52-58% | 98s, 87s |
| Suited gappers | 48-54% | 97s, 86s |
| Random junk | 35-45% | 72o, 83o |
Multi-Way Pot Equities
As more players enter, individual equities decrease:
| Players | AA Equity | Top 5% Range |
|---|---|---|
| 2 (heads-up) | 85% | ~80% |
| 3 | 73% | ~65% |
| 4 | 64% | ~55% |
| 5 | 56% | ~45% |
| 6 | 49% | ~40% |
Post-Flop Equity {#postflop}
How Flop Changes Equity
Example: AA vs 78s
| Street | AA Equity | 78s Equity |
|---|---|---|
| Preflop | 78% | 22% |
| Flop: K♠ 2♦ 3♣ | 91% | 9% |
| Flop: 5♦ 6♠ 9♣ | 52% | 48% |
| Flop: 6♥ 7♥ 8♥ | 8% | 92% |
Board Texture and Equity
| Texture | How It Affects Equity |
|---|---|
| Dry (K72r) | Preserves preflop advantages |
| Wet (JT9ss) | Draws gain equity, made hands lose |
| Paired (KK5) | Sets/boats dominate |
| Monotone (all hearts) | Flush draws have huge equity |
| Connected (678) | Straight possibilities shift equity |
Drawing Hand Equities
| Draw | vs Overpair | vs Top Pair | vs Set |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 35% | 36% | 26% |
| OESD | 32% | 33% | 26% |
| Flush + OESD | 54% | 55% | 43% |
| Gutshot | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Overcards | 24% | 14% | 4% |
Made Hand Equities vs Draws
| Your Hand | Board | vs Flush Draw |
|---|---|---|
| Top pair | K♥ 9♠ 4♠ | 65% |
| Two pair | K♥ 9♠ 4♠ (K9) | 68% |
| Set | K♥ 9♠ 4♠ (99) | 74% |
| Overpair | K♥ 9♠ 4♠ (AA) | 65% |
Equity vs Ranges {#ranges}
Thinking in Ranges
Instead of "opponent has AK," think in ranges:
Villain's 3-bet range: {AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs, AKo, AQs}
Your equity against this range differs from equity vs specific hands.
Range vs Range Example
Your hand: Q♣ Q♦ Board: K♠ 8♥ 4♣
| Opponent's Range | Your Equity |
|---|---|
| Any two cards | 85% |
| Top 30% | 72% |
| Top 20% | 65% |
| KK+, AK | 24% |
| 77-55, suited connectors | 78% |
Calculating Range Equity
| Opponent Hand | Probability | Your Equity | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA (6 combos) | 20% | 20% | 4.0% |
| KK (6 combos) | 20% | 18% | 3.6% |
| AK (16 combos) | 53% | 70% | 37.1% |
| AQ (2 combos) | 7% | 75% | 5.3% |
| Total | 100% | - | 50% |
Polarized vs Linear Ranges
| Range Type | Equity Distribution |
|---|---|
| Polarized (nuts or air) | You're either way ahead or way behind |
| Linear (all strong) | Your equity is more consistent |
| Merged (varied strength) | Complex equity calculations |
Equity Realization {#realization}
Why Raw Equity Isn't Everything
Equity Realization (EQR) = How much of your theoretical equity you actually capture
Factors Affecting EQR
| Factor | Impact on EQR |
|---|---|
| Position | IP realizes 100%+, OOP realizes 70-85% |
| Skill edge | Better players realize more |
| Stack depth | Deeper = more realization |
| Hand playability | Connected hands realize better |
| Range advantage | Board favoring your range = higher |
Position and EQR
| Position | Typical EQR |
|---|---|
| Button | 100-110% |
| Cutoff | 95-100% |
| Middle | 90-95% |
| UTG | 85-95% |
| Big Blind | 75-90% |
| Small Blind | 65-80% |
Playability Examples
| Hand | Raw Equity vs AA | Playability | EQR |
|---|---|---|---|
| KK | 18% | High | 95%+ |
| 65s | 23% | High | 90%+ |
| A5o | 29% | Low | 70-80% |
| Q9o | 31% | Medium | 80-85% |
Why Some Hands Underperform
| Issue | Example | Problem |
|---|---|---|
| Dominated | KJ vs KQ | Lose big when you both hit |
| Reverse implied odds | Weak flush draw | Hit and lose to nut flush |
| No nut potential | 86o | Can't make nuts |
| Easily counterfeited | A2 with 2 on board | Better kickers exist |
Using Equity Strategically {#strategy}
Equity-Based Decisions
When to Bet for Value
| Your Equity | Action |
|---|---|
| 65%+ vs calling range | Bet big for value |
| 55-65% | Bet medium for value |
| 50-55% | Thin value or check |
| <50% | Check or bluff |
All-In Equity Requirements
| Situation | Minimum Equity Needed |
|---|---|
| Call all-in into 2:1 pot | 33% |
| Call all-in into 1:1 pot | 50% |
| Call all-in into 0.5:1 pot | 67% |
Semi-Bluff Equity
For semi-bluffs to be profitable:
Need either:
- High fold equity
- High draw equity
- Or combination of both
Common Equity Scenarios {#scenarios}
Scenario 1: Calling a River Bet
Pot: 100 Pot odds: 100/400 = 25%
Decision: You need 25%+ equity to call profitably
Scenario 2: Set Over Set
| Situation | Equity |
|---|---|
| Set of Kings vs Set of Queens | 96% vs 4% |
| Set vs Two Pair | ~95% vs 5% |
| Set vs Flush Draw | ~74% vs 26% |
Lesson: Set over set is a cooler—rarely foldable
Scenario 3: Overpair vs Combo Draw
Your hand: A♠ A♥ Board: K♠ T♠ 9♥ Opponent: Q♠ J♠ (flush draw + OESD)
| Street | AA Equity |
|---|---|
| Flop | 46% |
| Turn (blank) | 77% |
| Turn (spade) | 0% |
| Turn (8 or Q) | 0% |
The overpair is actually behind!
Scenario 4: Multi-Way All-In
3-way all-in preflop:
- Player A: A♠ A♥ (36%)
- Player B: K♠ K♥ (18%)
- Player C: Q♠ Q♥ (18%)
- Ties: ~28%
Note: AA equity drops significantly multi-way but still dominates
Scenario 5: Blocking Outs
Your hand: K♠ Q♠ Board: A♠ J♠ 5♥ 2♣
You have:
- 9 flush outs
- 3 ten outs (gut shot)
- BUT: 1 ten is a spade (counted twice)
- Clean outs: 11
Opponent with A♣ K♣ blocks:
- Your K outs (you can't pair K for win)
- One of your straight cards
Equity Tools {#tools}
Online Calculators
| Tool | Best For |
|---|---|
| Equilab (free) | Range vs range |
| PokerStove (free) | Quick calculations |
| Flopzilla | Board textures |
| PioSolver | GTO analysis |
Memorize These Numbers
| Situation | Equity |
|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 82% |
| Overpair vs flush draw | 65% |
| Flush draw (turn only) | 19% |
| Flush draw (turn + river) | 35% |
| OESD (turn only) | 17% |
| OESD (turn + river) | 32% |
| Set vs flush draw | 74% |
| Two pair vs OESD | 67% |
Related Calculators
- Equity Calculator - Hand vs hand/range
- Pot Odds Calculator - Compare equity to odds
- Outs Calculator - Convert outs to equity
Frequently Asked Questions
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Evgeny Volkov
Verified ExpertOver 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.
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