Martingale vs Fibonacci: Which Strategy is Better?

Progressive betting strategies like Martingale and Fibonacci promise to overcome losses. But do they work? Let's compare.

The Martingale System

How It Works

Double your stake after every loss. One win recovers all losses plus one unit profit.

Sequence: 1 → 2 → 4 → 8 → 16 → 32 → 64...

Example ($10 base)

After 4 bets, profit = $10 (one unit)

Problem

After 7 losses at odds 2.00:

• Total staked: $1,270
• Next stake: $1,280
• Risk: $2,550 to win$10

Try our Martingale Calculator.

The Fibonacci System

How It Works

Follow the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...

After a loss, move one step forward. After a win, move two steps back.

Example ($10 base)

Advantage Over Martingale

Slower stake growth = survives longer losing streaks.

Try our Fibonacci Calculator.

Side-by-Side Comparison

The Mathematical Truth

Both systems fail because:

1. No edge — Betting on coin flips at 1.90 odds has negative EV
2. Betting limits — Bookmakers cap maximum stakes
3. Finite bankroll — You'll eventually hit a losing streak you can't recover from

Long-Term Expectation

With 4% margin and no edge:

• Expected loss per bet: -2%
• Systems don't change this math

When Progressive Systems Seem to Work

Short-term success creates illusion:

• 90% of sessions end in small profit
• 10% end in catastrophic loss

The catastrophic losses > accumulated small wins.

Better Alternatives

Flat Betting

Same stake every bet. Lower variance, sustainable.

Kelly Criterion

Stake based on edge. Learn more.

Percentage of Bankroll

Adjust stakes to bankroll. Guide here.

Important Note: Progressive betting systems like Martingale and Fibonacci don't work on skill-based games like video poker, where optimal strategy and correct hand decisions matter far more than bet sizing progression. For these games, focus on learning perfect strategy rather than betting patterns.

Related Tools

• Martingale Simulator - Test martingale risk-free
• Fibonacci Calculator
• Kelly Criterion
• Bankroll Growth Calculator - Smarter alternative
• Staking Plan Calculator - Compare all strategies

Related Articles

• D'Alembert Strategy: The Safer Progressive System - A gentler alternative to Martingale
• Kelly Criterion Explained - The mathematically optimal approach
• Bankroll Management Guide - Essential money management

For a customizable sequence system, try the Labouchère System.

Consider Oscar's Grind if you want a more patient, session-based approach.

Conclusion

Neither Martingale nor Fibonacci creates profit from negative-EV bets. Use them only for entertainment with money you can afford to lose.

For real profit:

1. Find value bets
2. Use proper bankroll management
3. Bet with an edge