Expert Guide to Casino Bonus Expected Value
As a casino mathematics specialist, I've analyzed bonus calculations for hundreds of offers. This calculator uses the same formulas casinos use to predict their profits - but now you can use them to understand your expected costs.
What is Expected Value (EV) and Why It Matters
Expected Value represents the average outcome over many trials. A positive EV bonus means you'll profit on average; negative EV means expected losses. Unlike luck-based thinking, EV is pure mathematics - it's how casinos guarantee profits and how smart players choose bonuses.
Key Factors Affecting Bonus Value
Wagering multiplier is the biggest factor - each 10x increase in wagering roughly doubles your expected losses. RTP matters too: playing 94% RTP slots vs 97% slots on a 30x bonus can swing EV by $15-20 per $100 bonus. Max win caps silently destroy value by capping upside while leaving downside unlimited.
How to Find Positive EV Bonuses
Look for: low wagering (under 25x), bonus-only wagering, no max win caps, long expiry periods, and high-RTP game access. No-deposit bonuses are almost always positive EV since you risk nothing. Match bonuses need careful calculation - a 100% bonus with 40x wagering is usually negative EV.
Common Bonus Traps
Watch for: wagering on bonus+deposit (doubles required bets), low max win caps (5x bonus is very restrictive), short expiry (forces rushed, risky play), restricted games (often excludes high-RTP slots), and contribution rates (some games only count 10-50% toward wagering).
Strategic Approach to Bonus Hunting
Calculate EV before accepting any bonus. Set minimum EV thresholds (I recommend 5%+ of bonus value). Consider time investment - $10 EV requiring 10 hours isn't worth it. Track your results to validate calculations. Remember: even positive EV bonuses can lose due to variance, so proper bankroll management is essential.
