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Free Tool Algorithm updated: Feb 2026

Value Bet Calculator 2026

Identify positive expected value bets and calculate your edge over bookmakers

EV
Developed by Evgeniy Volkov

Bet Parameters

Bookmaker's Implied Probability: 50.0%

%

Value Analysis

VALUE BET

Your Edge: +5%

Expected Value (EV)

+$10

EV per $1 stake: +10%

Bookmaker's Implied Probability50%
Your Estimated Probability55%

Potential Payout ($100)

$200.00(+$100.00 Potential Profit)

Value Bet Formulas

The mathematics behind value betting

Expected Value

EV = (P × Profit) - (Q × Stake)

P=55%, Odds=2.0: EV = (0.55 × $100) - (0.45 × $100) = +$10

Edge Calculation

Edge = (P × Odds) - 1

P=55%, Odds=2.0: Edge = (0.55 × 2.0) - 1 = 10%

Value Bet Condition

Value exists when: P × Odds > 1

55% × 2.0 = 1.10 > 1 = VALUE BET

Kelly Criterion

f = (P × Odds - 1) / (Odds - 1)

P=55%, Odds=2.0: f = (1.10 - 1) / 1 = 10% of bankroll

How Value Betting Works

1

Estimate True Probability

Use your research, statistics, and analysis to estimate the actual probability of an outcome occurring.

2

Compare to Bookmaker Odds

Convert bookmaker odds to implied probability. If your estimate is higher, you may have found value.

3

Calculate Expected Value

Positive EV means long-term profit. The higher your edge, the more you should bet (within limits).

Apply Kelly Criterion

Use Kelly sizing to determine optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll.

Value betting applies to table games too — discover the true EV of splitting 10s in blackjack

Value Bet Examples

Common scenarios and their expected values

ScenarioOddsYour ProbImpliedEdgeEV on $100
Strong Value2.5050%40%+25%+$25
Marginal Value2.0052%50%+4%+$4
Fair Odds2.0050%50%0%$0
No Value1.8050%55.5%-10%-$10
Longshot Value5.0025%20%+25%+$25

Pro Tips for Value Betting

🎯

Specialize in Niche Markets

Bookmakers focus on major leagues. Find edge in lower divisions, esports, or obscure markets where their models are weaker.

📊

Track Everything

Log every bet with your estimated probability. After 500+ bets, analyze whether your predictions match reality.

📉

Use Closing Line Value

Compare your bet odds to closing odds. Consistently beating closing lines proves long-term skill.

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FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

A value bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker's odds suggest. If you believe a team has a 55% chance to win but the odds imply only 50%, that's a value bet with a 10% edge.
Use statistical analysis, historical data, team news, head-to-head records, and your expertise. Compare your estimates with sharp bookmaker lines. Over time, track your accuracy to improve.
Expected Value is your average profit per bet over time. EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Positive EV means long-term profit.
Use the Kelly Criterion: stake a percentage of your bankroll equal to your edge divided by the odds minus one. Most professionals use half or quarter Kelly for lower variance.
Value betting is about long-term profit, not individual wins. Short-term variance can cause losses even with correct analysis. Track hundreds of bets before judging results.
Any positive edge is valuable. 2-5% edge is common for recreational bettors. Professional bettors often work with 1-3% edges at high volume. Above 10% edge is rare and should be verified.
Track all your bets and compare predicted vs actual win rates. If you predict 60% and win 60% over 500+ bets, your estimates are well-calibrated.

About Value Betting

Value betting is the foundation of profitable sports betting. By consistently finding bets where your estimated probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability, you create a mathematical edge that compounds over time.

Our value bet calculator helps you identify these opportunities by comparing your probability estimates against bookmaker odds. Enter your assessment, and instantly see your expected value, edge percentage, and recommended stake using Kelly Criterion.

Unlike systems based on hunches or patterns, value betting is mathematically sound. Professional bettors have used these principles for decades to generate consistent profits. This free calculator gives you the same analytical tools used by sharp bettors worldwide.

Value Betting Guides

Master the art of finding profitable bets

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Fibonacci Betting System Guide

Combine value betting with the Fibonacci sequence strategy for structured bankroll management.

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Apply Betting Systems to Value Bets

Learn how to combine value betting with the Labouchere progression for structured staking.

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Can AI Predict Lottery Numbers?

Understanding expected value requires knowing why true randomness cannot be predicted - even by AI.

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Evgeniy Volkov

Evgeny Volkov

Verified Expert
Math & Software Engineer, iGaming Expert

Over 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.

Experience10+
SpecializationiGaming
Status
Active
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