Poker Variance Simulator
Visualize the impact of variance on your results. See possible outcomes, expected downswings, and probability of profit.
Even the best poker players experience brutal downswings. This Monte Carlo simulator runs thousands of sessions with your exact winrate and standard deviation, showing you the full range of possible outcomes. Use it to set realistic bankroll requirements, understand that extended losing streaks are mathematically normal, and make better decisions about when to move up or down in stakes.
Quick Presets
Parameters
Typical: 70-90 for NLHE, 100-140 for PLO
Equity Curves
Result Distribution
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Understanding Poker Variance
What is variance in poker?
Variance measures how much your results deviate from expectation. High variance means bigger swings - you can run way above or below your true winrate for extended periods.
What is standard deviation?
Standard deviation quantifies how spread out your results are. For NLHE, typical values are 70-90 bb/100. Higher = more variance (PLO: 100-140, MTTs: 150+).
How many hands until my true winrate shows?
For cash games, 50,000-100,000 hands gives a reasonable estimate, but 200,000+ hands are needed for statistical significance. MTT players need 1,000+ tournaments.
Why do I need this simulator?
To understand that losing streaks are normal. A 5bb/100 winner can easily lose 50 buy-ins over 100k hands due to variance. Seeing this helps with tilt control.
Evgeny Volkov
Verified ExpertOver 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.