Understanding the Gambler's Fallacy
The Gambler's Fallacy is one of the most common and costly cognitive biases in gambling. It's the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than expected during a period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). This simulator lets you witness firsthand why this belief is mathematically wrong.
Why Our Brains Fall for This Trap
Humans are pattern-seeking creatures. When we see 10 reds in a row, our brain screams that black is 'due.' This feeling is so strong it can override logical thinking. But here's the truth: each roulette spin, coin flip, or dice roll is an independent event. The wheel has no memory. The coin doesn't know what happened before. The probability is reset to baseline every single time.
The Monte Carlo Casino Incident
In 1913, at the Monte Carlo Casino, the ball fell on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost millions betting on red, convinced it was 'due.' The probability of 26 blacks in a row is about 1 in 66 million - but once 25 blacks had already occurred, the 26th spin still had only a 48.65% chance of being black. Past results provided zero predictive value. This event is why the Gambler's Fallacy is sometimes called the 'Monte Carlo Fallacy.'
