Bluff
Bluffing is poker's defining art—the ability to win pots you don't deserve through deception rather than hand strength. A well-executed bluff tells a story: your betting pattern, sizing, and timing convince opponents you hold a monster when you actually hold nothing. But bluffing isn't random aggression. It's calculated deception requiring fold equity, credible narratives, and strategic timing. Too little bluffing makes you predictable; too much makes you exploitable. Master bluffing, and you transform poker from a card game into a psychological battle where the best hand doesn't always win.
| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Betting with no chance to win at showdown |
| Example | Betting river with 7-high when you missed everything |
| Risk | Maximum—if called, you lose |
| Profit source | 100% from fold equity |
When it works: Opponent has a hand they can fold.
| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Betting with a draw that can improve |
| Example | Betting flush draw on the flop |
| Equity | Typically 25-45% |
| Profit source | Fold equity + hand equity |
Semi-Bluff EV=P(Fold)×Pot+P(Call)×(Equity×New Pot−Bet)| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Following preflop aggression with a bet on the flop |
| Frequency | 50-70% of flops (when appropriate) |
| Success rate | Works ~40-60% of the time |
| Foundation | Preflop range advantage |
| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Calling to bluff a later street |
| Setup | Call flop bet in position |
| Execution | Bet when opponent checks turn |
| Requirement | Position essential |
| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Checking, then raising when bet to |
| Signal | Extreme strength (or extreme weakness) |
| Risk | Committing more chips |
| Best against | Aggressive opponents |
| Aspect | Description |
|---|
| Definition | Showing weakness early, then betting later |
| Setup | Check flop and turn, bet river |
| Story | "I made my hand on the river" |
| Effectiveness | Works against attentive opponents |
| Bluff Type | Equity Needed | Risk Level | Fold Equity Required |
|---|
| Pure bluff | 0% | Highest | Must fold |
| Semi-bluff | 25-45% | Medium | Partial |
| C-bet bluff | Varies | Low-Medium | Moderate |
| Float bluff | Low | Medium | Moderate |
| Check-raise bluff | Varies | High | High |
| Factor | Why It Helps |
|---|
| Scare cards | New cards that complete draws |
| Dry boards | Few draws, easier to represent |
| Position | Act last, have information |
| Tight opponents | More likely to fold |
| Credible story | Your betting line makes sense |
| Blockers | You hold cards they need |
| Factor | Why It Fails |
|---|
| Multi-way pots | Someone usually has something |
| Calling stations | They don't fold |
| Wet boards | Too many draws to call with |
| Small pots | Not worth the risk |
| No story | Your line doesn't make sense |
| Visible weakness | You've shown hesitation |
| Board Type | Bluff Frequency | Why |
|---|
| A-K-7 rainbow | High | Hits your range, dry texture |
| 7-8-9 two-tone | Low | Too many draws called |
| Q-Q-4 | Medium | Polarized—either you have it or you don't |
| K-T-6-2-3 | High | Blanks = keep telling story |
| Opponent Type | Bluff Frequency |
|---|
| Nit (very tight) | High—they fold too much |
| TAG (tight-aggressive) | Moderate—pick spots |
| LAG (loose-aggressive) | Low—they don't fold |
| Calling station | Very low—they call everything |
| Thinking player | Balanced—they adjust |
Required Fold %=Pot Before Bet+Bet SizeBet Size| Bet Size | Break-Even Folds |
|---|
| 25% pot | 20% |
| 33% pot | 25% |
| 50% pot | 33% |
| 66% pot | 40% |
| 75% pot | 43% |
| 100% pot | 50% |
EV=P(Fold)×Pot−P(Call)×BetExample: You bluff 75into100 pot
| Fold Rate | EV Calculation | Result |
|---|
| 50% | (0.5 × 100)−(0.5×75) | +$12.50 |
| 43% | (0.43 × 100)−(0.57×75) | -$0.25 |
| 40% | (0.4 × 100)−(0.6×75) | -$5.00 |
Break-even: 43% folds for 75% pot bet
EV=P(F)×Pot+P(C)×[P(W)×NewPot−Bet]Example: Semi-bluff 50into100 with flush draw (35% equity)
| Component | Value |
|---|
| Pot | $100 |
| Bet | $50 |
| P(Fold) | 40% |
| P(Call) | 60% |
| Equity when called | 35% |
| New pot if called | $200 |
EV=0.4×$100+0.6×(0.35×$200−$50)EV=$40+0.6×($70−$50)=$40+$12=+$52Highly profitable due to combined fold equity and hand equity!
GTO suggests on the river:
Bluff Frequency=1+Pot Odds GivenPot Odds Given to Opponent| Bet Size | Bluff % of Betting Range |
|---|
| 50% pot | 25% bluffs, 75% value |
| 75% pot | 30% bluffs, 70% value |
| 100% pot | 33% bluffs, 67% value |
| 150% pot | 38% bluffs, 62% value |
| Principle | Explanation |
|---|
| Same as value bets | Don't have different bluff sizes |
| Match pot odds | Larger = need fewer bluffs |
| Consider opponent | Calling stations need bigger bets |
| Board dependent | Scary boards = smaller bets work |
| Situation | Sizing | Reason |
|---|
| Dry board bluff | 33-50% pot | Don't need big bets |
| Scare card bluff | 50-75% pot | Representing big hand |
| River bluff | 66-100% pot | Final decision for opponent |
| Overbet bluff | 125-200% pot | Polarized, max pressure |
| Tell | What It Signals |
|---|
| Bigger bluffs than value bets | Weak = bet big |
| Smaller bluffs | Strong = bet small |
| Hesitation before bet | Thinking = weak |
| Quick bet | Automated = strong |
Solution: Use consistent timing and sizing for all bets.
| Signal | Opponent Likely Folds |
|---|
| Checked to you | Weakness |
| Quick check | No decision needed = weak |
| Small bet then check | Gave up |
| Called flop, checked turn | Testing with medium strength |
You want to hold cards that:
- Reduce opponent's strong hands
- Don't block their folding range
| Your Cards | What They Block |
|---|
| A♠ on flush board | Opponent's nut flush |
| K on K-high board | Opponent's top pair |
| 8-7 on T-9-x board | Opponent's straight |
| Street | Your Story Element |
|---|
| Preflop | Raise = strong range |
| Flop | C-bet = still strong |
| Turn | Continue = specific strong hand |
| River | Complete story = nut hand |
Inconsistencies kill bluffs:
- Check flop → bet turn big → suspicious
- Bet small → bet big → suspicious
- Passive preflop → aggressive post-flop → suspicious
Call if:Win Rate>Pot Odds Required| Pot | Bet | Call | Required Win % |
|---|
| $100 | $50 | $50 | 25% |
| $100 | $100 | $100 | 33% |
| $100 | $150 | $150 | 38% |
| Bluff Tell | What to Look For |
|---|
| Overbetting | Polarized, often bluff-heavy |
| Betting scare cards | Representing what hit |
| Inconsistent line | Story doesn't add up |
| Timing tells | Tanking then betting = strong usually |
| Opponent Style | Your Adjustment |
|---|
| Over-bluffs | Call more, widen calling range |
| Never bluffs | Fold more, respect their bets |
| Balanced | Play GTO, don't adjust |
| Street | Bluff % of Range |
|---|
| Flop | 60-70% (many semi-bluffs) |
| Turn | 40-50% (continue with equity) |
| River | 25-35% (pure bluffs balanced) |
| Range Type | Bluffing Strategy |
|---|
| Polarized | Strong or nothing, bet big |
| Merged | All medium strength, bet small |
| Linear | Decreasing strength, bet medium |
| Overbet Size | Bluff % | When to Use |
|---|
| 1.5x pot | 38% | Nut advantage boards |
| 2x pot | 40% | Polarized situations |
| 3x pot | 43% | Extreme polarization |
When opponent bets, you should:
Call %=1−Required Fold % for Their BluffIf they bet pot (need 50% folds), you call with 50% of your range to prevent exploitation.
Problem: Betting into players who never fold
Solution: Only value bet against them
Problem: Bluff line doesn't make sense
Solution: Plan your bluff from preflop
Problem: Bluffing too small (they call) or too big (risking too much)
Solution: Use same sizing for bluffs and value
Problem: Bluffing into 3+ players
Solution: Rarely bluff multi-way—someone has something
Problem: Bluffing too frequently, becoming predictable
Solution: Track your bluff frequency, aim for ~30% of bets
Problem: Semi-bluffing flop then checking turn
Solution: Plan for multiple streets when bluffing
Before every bluff, ask:
| Question | Must Answer Yes |
|---|
| Can opponent fold? | Essential |
| Does my story make sense? | Essential |
| Am I in position? | Preferred |
| Is this a good board? | Important |
| Is my sizing correct? | Important |
| Do I have blockers? | Helpful |
