ICM Calculator & Push/Fold Trainer (2026)
Three tools in one: an exact ICM equity calculator, a final-table deal calculator, and a push/fold trainer that grades you with real ICM math, not a hand-strength guess.
Players & stacks
12,000Prize ladder
100Enter the payouts for the places still being decided, biggest first. Use real money or percentages of the pool, the model only cares about the ratios.
ICM equity vs chip chop
| Player | Chip % | Chip chop | ICM equity | ICM vs chips |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Seat 1 | 35% | 35 | 30.06 | -4.94 |
Seat 2 | 25.83% | 25.83 | 25.26 | -0.57 |
Seat 3 | 18.33% | 18.33 | 19.97 | +1.63 |
Seat 4 | 12.50% | 12.50 | 14.58 | +2.08 |
Seat 5 | 8.33% | 8.33 | 10.13 | +1.80 |
| Total | 100% | 100 | 100 | 0 |
Exact result. 3 paid places, 5 players, computed with memoised Malmuth-Harville (no simulation).
A bubble factor of 1.01 means a chip Seat 1 loses in an all-in costs 1.01x the equity a chip won would add. Above 1.0 you are under ICM pressure, so you need a clear edge before risking your stack. Winner-take-all sits at exactly 1.0.
How the ICM suite works
Set the table
Type in each remaining stack and the prizes still being decided. Presets cover common 9-handed, 6-max, and heads-up ladders.
Read the equity
The calculator prices every stack in real money and shows how far ICM pulls it away from a raw chip chop.
Train the spots
Switch to the trainer to practise small-blind shoves where ICM, not chip-EV, decides whether the all-in is correct.
Why one extra chip is not worth what you think
The single idea behind every tool on this page is that tournament chips do not equal money. You can never cash out a chip. It only has value through where it places you on the prize ladder, and that relationship is not linear.
Chips you win are worth less than chips you lose
Double your stack and you do not double your equity, because you can still only win first place once. The chips that take you from average to chip leader add far less money than the chips that take you from short stack to zero remove. That asymmetry is the whole game near the money.
Where ICM pressure actually shows up
It is strongest on the bubble and at pay jumps with a steep ladder and stacks that are close together. It is weakest when the structure is nearly winner-take-all or when one stack dwarfs the table. A satellite, where every seat pays the same, is the extreme case: once you have enough to lock a seat, almost no hand is worth a coin flip.
How the trainer uses it
Instead of guessing from hand strength, the trainer builds the four real outcomes of a small-blind shove, prices each one with the ICM engine, and weights them by your actual equity against the big blind's range. That is why a hand that is a clear chip-EV shove can still flash up as a fold.
Deals are just ICM with the cards turned face up
When players chop, they are settling the tournament early. A pure chip chop pretends chips are cash and overpays the leader. ICM prices the ladder correctly, which is why short stacks should always push for the ICM number and leaders should hold out for chip chop.
Where the model stops
Malmuth-Harville ignores skill, position, and future blinds, so a strong player is usually worth a touch more than their ICM number and a passive one slightly less. Treat the output as a precise baseline to reason from, not a law. I still eyeball the bubble factor before any close all-in.
ICM in poker: the calculator, the deals, and the spots that matter
The Independent Chip Model is the maths that turns tournament chips into real money equity. As of 2026 it underpins every serious endgame decision, from a small-blind shove on the bubble to a five-way deal at the final table. This guide explains what the model does, where it bites, and how to use the calculator and trainer above without fooling yourself.
What ICM actually calculates
ICM takes two inputs: the chip stacks of everyone left, and the prizes still to be paid. From those it estimates the probability each player finishes in each paid place, then multiplies by the payouts to get a dollar figure. The standard method, Malmuth-Harville, says your chance of finishing first is simply your share of the chips, then repeats that logic on the remaining players for second, third, and so on.
Notice what is missing: cards, skill, position, blind level. ICM is a pure chip-and-payout model. That is a strength, because it gives a clean, repeatable baseline, and a limit, because two players with identical stacks are priced identically even if one is far better. The calculator above runs the exact recursion, so for any table up to ten-handed you get the true number, not a simulation.
The first time the model changed my game was a bubble fold with pocket nines for 12 big blinds. Chip-EV screamed shove. ICM said the chip leader behind me made it a clear fold, and a season of results later I believe it.
Why chips are not money
Everything ICM tells you flows from one fact: you cannot cash a chip, you can only ladder up the payout structure. That makes the chip-to-money curve bend, and four consequences fall out of it.
Survival has its own value
Folding keeps you eligible for every pay jump above you. On a steep ladder that guaranteed laddering is worth real money, which is why short stacks are priced above their raw chip share.
The chip leader is overvalued by chips
A pure chip count credits the leader for a first place they can only win once. ICM hands some of that equity back to the field, so the leader should fight any deal that is not a straight chip chop.
Risk premium is real money
Because losing chips hurts more than winning them helps, you need more than break-even chip-EV to call or shove. The extra edge you need is the risk premium, and it grows as the ladder steepens.
Context decides everything
The same hand and stack can be a snap shove at the start of the money and a fold on the bubble. Without the stacks behind you and the ladder above you, a push/fold chart is only half the picture.
How the calculator computes equity
It runs the Malmuth-Harville recursion exactly. The probability you finish first is your chips over the total. For each player who might finish first, it removes them and solves the smaller table for the next place, and so on down to the last paid spot. Results are memoised on the set of remaining players, so even a nine-handed final table with nine pay spots resolves instantly.
Because it is exact, the equities always sum to the prize pool and a bigger stack is never priced below a smaller one. There is no Monte Carlo noise, no sampling error, and no need to wait. You can change one stack and watch every other player's equity move in real time.
The deal tab reuses the same engine. The ICM column is each player's equity; the chip-chop column is their raw chip share of the pool; the adjusted column guarantees the smallest remaining prize to everyone and chops the rest by chips. Comparing the three is the fastest way to see who a given deal favours.
How to use the ICM tools on toolsgambling.com
On toolsgambling.com you can use the ICM calculator and push/fold trainer for free, just like all our other tools. Here is the workflow I use to study a spot.
- 01
Rebuild the table
Enter every remaining stack and the prizes left. If you are reviewing a hand, match the exact stacks from the moment of the decision, not the start of the level.
- 02
Read the risk premium
Look at the ICM vs chips column. A big positive number on a short stack, or a big negative one on the leader, tells you ICM pressure is high and close spots should tighten up.
- 03
Check the bubble factor
Pick the player you care about and read their bubble factor against the table. Anything well above 1.0 means a coin flip is a losing proposition for them even though it is even money in chips.
- 04
Drill it in the trainer
Switch to the trainer and play similar stack depths. Watch the cases where the chip line and the ICM line disagree, those are the spots that cost players their tournament life.
- 05
Share or embed the result
Copy the link to send a scenario to a friend, or grab the embed code to put the calculator on your own blog or coaching site.
Three spots worth studying
Plug these into the calculator and the trainer to feel how the model behaves.
The classic bubble fold
Four left, three paid, you are second in chips with a medium stack and the leader covers everyone. A hand that is a routine shove with no money on the line becomes a fold, because busting before the bubble breaks is the single worst outcome the model can imagine.
The satellite lock-up
Flat payouts where every seat is equal. Once your stack is safely above the cutoff, the bubble factor explodes and almost nothing is worth a flip. Folding pocket kings preflop can be correct, which feels absurd until you see the equity.
The heads-up deal
Two left, 65/35 ladder, you hold a 2-to-1 chip lead. ICM and the chip chop disagree by only a few percent here, which is exactly why heads-up deals are easy to agree on while a five-way chop with a short stack is a fight.
Common ICM mistakes
The model is simple, but it is easy to misuse. These are the errors I see most.
Treating ICM as a rule, not a baseline
It ignores skill and position. If you are clearly the best player at the table, you can fold a hair more than the number says; if you are outclassed, accept your equity and look for spots sooner.
Forgetting the stacks behind you
Shoving into a big stack that has you covered is far riskier than shoving into a short one that cannot bust you. Same hand, completely different ICM cost.
Applying bubble logic too early
ICM pressure is mild when the ladder is shallow and the field is deep. Early in a tournament you should play close to chip-EV and save the tight folds for the pay jumps.
Accepting a pure chip chop as a short stack
If you are short, a chip chop underpays you. Push for the ICM number; it can be worth several buy-ins at a final table.
Ignoring the risk premium when calling
Calling an all-in needs even more edge than shoving, because you cannot win the pot uncontested. A break-even chip call is usually an ICM fold.
Over-folding a big stack
ICM pressure cuts both ways. As the chip leader you should apply pressure, not absorb it, and many of your shoves print because everyone else is forced to fold too tight.
ICM glossary
The vocabulary you will meet across these tools.
Key terms
- Independent Chip Model. Converts chip stacks plus a prize ladder into each player's real-money equity.
- The standard ICM algorithm. Finish probability for first place equals chip share, applied recursively for lower places.
- A deal that pays each player their exact share of the chips. Simple, but it overpays the chip leader.
- The extra edge above break-even chip-EV you need before risking your stack, because lost chips cost more equity than won chips add.
- How many times more a lost chip costs you than a won chip gains, for a given pair of players. Above 1.0 means ICM pressure.
- Short-stack strategy where your only options preflop are shove all-in or fold, because there are no chips left to play after the flop.
- A step up in the prize ladder. The steeper the jump, the more survival is worth and the higher the ICM pressure.
- Having fewer chips than an opponent in the hand, so you can be eliminated by them. Being covered raises the ICM cost of every all-in.
ICM
Malmuth-Harville
Chip chop
Risk premium
Bubble factor
Push/fold
Pay jump
Covered
A note on accuracy
All equity figures are exact for the model, but the model is a simplification. Use them to reason, not to autopilot.
Free poker tools on toolsgambling.com
The ICM suite pairs naturally with the rest of our free poker maths tools. Use them together to study a hand from every angle.
Play within your limits
ICM is a tool for better tournament decisions, not a promise of profit. Tournaments are high variance, so only buy in with money you can afford to lose, and take a break if the game stops being fun. For free, confidential support visit BeGambleAware.org.
Evgeniy Volkov
Verified ExpertFullstack developer with a background in mathematics. I build the calculators and game-style tools on ToolsGambling with Pixi.js and modern web tech, and every result uses transparent probability formulas you can verify yourself.