What Is a Money Line Bet? How Two-Way and Three-Way Lines Settle

A money line bet is a wager on which side wins the game, with no handicap and no margin of victory required. The price sets the payout: at -125 a $100 stake returns $80 profit and $180 in total, and at +130 it returns $130 profit and $230 in total. What matters more is how many outcomes the market has: a two-way moneyline has no draw option, while a three-way moneyline treats the draw as its own outcome, so a bet on a team to win loses on a draw.

This page covers the market itself: what counts as a win, how prices pay, and what a draw or overtime does. For price formats see how betting odds work, and for a bet that refunds a draw see the draw no bet guide. Spreads and totals are not covered. The prices are illustrative, and the rules come from one operator (DraftKings, version 8.1.24); another sportsbook may use a different period or settlement order.

The market is written “money line” or “moneyline”; the spelling does not change settlement.

How to read a moneyline price

With American odds, a minus price shows the stake needed to win 100 in profit; a plus price shows the profit on a stake of 100. That reference amount is neither a minimum bet nor a currency designation.

At -125, you would stake $125 to earn $100 profit; at -200, $200; at -400, $400. You can use a different stake: a $100 bet at -125 earns $80 profit.

Total return is your stake plus your profit. At +130, a $100 stake earns $130 profit and returns $230 in total.

The break-even rate is the win probability at which the expected result is zero. For a minus price such as -125, divide the number (125) by itself plus 100. For a plus price such as +130, divide 100 by the number (130) plus 100:

• -125: 125/225 = 55.56%.
• +130: 100/230 = 43.48%.

The main assumption affecting this threshold is the available price: moving from -125 to -115 lowers it from 55.56% to 53.49%; at -135, it rises to 57.45%. These calculations assume no separate push outcome. Percentages are rounded to two decimal places, as in the tool.

You can check the conversion of +130 to decimal odds of 2.30 in the odds converter. For -125, the decimal form is 1.80. Changing the format changes neither the event nor the payout.

Frequent wins do not necessarily mean a profit. In a series of ten $100 bets at -200, each win earns $50 profit:

• Six wins produce a net loss of $100.
• Seven wins produce a net profit of $50.
• Eight wins produce a net profit of $200.

The break-even rate is 66.67%, which is 6.67 wins out of ten. Wins come in whole numbers, so profit starts at seven wins. Six wins out of ten (60%) loses money at -200.

Two-way or three-way: what counts as a win?

A two-way market offers the two sides; a three-way market adds the draw as a separate selection. The number of selections alone does not establish the settlement period or refund conditions.

Under DraftKings 8.1.24, the Money Line rule defines a two-way market on the game winner, including overtime (p. 7). The primary source for the period and draw provisions is DraftKings Betting Rules, version 8.1.24, copy hosted by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. This is a historical 2024 version; the Massachusetts copy may differ from current rules, so check the terms applying to your wager.

Under DraftKings 8.1.24, Match Betting offers home win, draw and away win, settled on regulation time (p. 8). This operator also uses names such as Win-Draw-Win, Match Result (Regular Time), and, in hockey, 60 Minute Line. Moneyline 3-Way appears in its American football rules (p. 54). Three-way moneyline is a common descriptive name, not the two-way Money Line definition on page 7.

Under DraftKings 8.1.24, regulation time follows the governing association’s rules: soccer uses 90 minutes including injury time, while hockey uses three 20-minute periods (p. 21). This operator also has sport-specific provisions:

This operator’s hockey two-way push provision is a general market rule, not a claim that hockey remains tied after a shootout: the shootout produces a winner.

One game, two lines: how the bets settle

The same game result can win one bet and lose another because winning including overtime and winning in regulation time are different events.

For teams A and B, use these two hockey lines:

• Two-way, including overtime: A -125, B +105.
• Three-way, regulation time: A +130, Draw +330, B +160.

The table shows the net result of each $100 bet, excluding the returned stake from winning results. The short headers “A after tie” and “B after tie” mean the game is tied after 60 minutes and that team then wins in overtime or the shootout.

Teaching diagram: after 60 minutes the score is 3-3 and team A wins in overtime; a 100 dollar bet on A at -125 in a two-way market wins 80 dollars, while in a three-way market a bet on A at +130 loses 100 and a bet on the draw at +330 wins 330Teaching diagram with illustrative prices: the same game settles on overtime in a two-way market and on regulation time in a three-way market.

If A wins after a regulation tie, the bet on A at -125 earns $80, while the bet on A at +130 loses $100. The Draw selection at +330 wins regardless of which team subsequently wins in overtime or the shootout. Exactly one selection in each line wins in every outcome shown.

Compare each price’s threshold with your estimate of the same event. A regulation win is contained within the broader event of A winning including overtime, but the two events are not identical.

For the lines above, a bet on A at -125 pays off on average if your estimate of A winning including overtime is at least 55.56%. At +130, it pays off on average if your estimate of A winning in regulation time is at least 43.48%. At either threshold, the expected result is zero. After proportional margin removal, the market-derived probabilities are 53.25% and 41.33%, respectively. Below the relevant threshold, the expected result is negative. This conclusion depends on your probability estimate, not on a property of the market.

When is a moneyline stake refunded?

A stake is refunded when the market rules provide for it; a draw does not automatically refund every moneyline bet. In a three-way market, the draw is a winning selection and bets on either team lose.

Under DraftKings 8.1.24, a push means a wager refunded because of a tied outcome (p. 16). From this operator’s general two-way push provision for American football (p. 53) and its definition of a push, it follows that a result still tied after overtime returns the $100 stake with zero profit. This is an inference from two provisions, not a quotation of the Money Line definition.

In boxing, a draw voids bets and refunds wagers except where stated otherwise (p. 68). In baseball, for an official shortened game the Moneyline needs at least 5 full innings, or 4.5 if the home team is ahead, to have action (p. 61). A draw and an unfinished game are different settlement conditions. For this operator, Draw No Bet (DNB) also refunds stakes when there is no winner, but it is a separate market (p. 10).

What does the market margin cost?

The two-way line has a booksum of 104.34% and a margin of 4.34%; the three-way line has a booksum of 105.20% and a margin of 5.20%. These margins belong to the invented prices, not to the market types, and do not establish that one type costs more.

For A -125 and B +105, the implied probabilities are 55.56% and 48.78%. Proportional margin removal gives no-vig probabilities of 53.25% and 46.75%.

For A +130, Draw +330 and B +160, the implied probabilities are 43.48%, 23.26% and 38.46%. The same method gives no-vig probabilities of 41.33%, 22.11% and 36.56%.

For A at -125, the gap between the 55.56% break-even rate and the 53.25% no-vig probability is 2.31 percentage points. That is the cost of the margin for this selection under the proportional method. A no-vig probability is still an estimate derived from prices, not an established chance of winning.

The four de-vig methods produce slightly different estimates; the no-vig calculator guide explains how they work. All figures below are no-vig probabilities.

Method choice moves A’s two-way estimate within 53.25–53.46%, a difference of 0.21 percentage points, and its three-way estimate within 41.33–41.75%, a difference of 0.42 points. Both are smaller than the changes from the price sensitivity shown earlier.

Combining these illustrative prices arithmetically assigns A about 54% of regulation ties; this is not an overtime win rate or a fact about hockey. Changing the two-way prices to -120/+100 gives about 49%, to -130/+110 about 59%, and to -135/+115 about 63%. Changing A’s three-way price to +125 gives about 52%, and to +135 about 56%.

This margin calculation does not model pushes; a two-way market with a possible tied settlement needs a separate model.

How to check the numbers in the calculator

Use the implied probability calculator to check the arithmetic by entering the preset first, the odds format second and the prices last.

For the three-way line:

1. Select the preset “Three-way market”.
2. Select the “American” tab.
3. Enter +130, +330 and +160 in the right-hand odds fields, in that order. Optionally type the names A, Draw and B in the left-hand name fields.
4. Check that “De-vig method” is set to “Multiplicative”, the default.

The order matters because the preset fills decimal odds and switching tabs converts the existing values. Enter your prices only after selecting the tab.

For two outcomes, use the preset “Two-way market”, then “American”, then enter -125 and 105.

ToolsGambling implied probability calculator: American prices +130, +330 and +160 entered for three outcomes, booksum 105.20%, margin 5.20%, fair no-vig probabilities 41.33%, 22.11% and 36.56%Frame of the live tool (production site, 17 Oct 2026): illustrative prices +130, +330 and +160 typed into the fields; the tool shows a booksum of 105.20% and a margin of 5.20%.

For three outcomes, “Booksum” should show 105.20% and “Margin” should show 5.20%. Read the results in A, Draw, B order:

• “Odds”: 2.30, 4.30, 2.60 (the results table shows decimal odds).
• “Implied”: 43.48%, 23.26%, 38.46%.
• “Fair (no-vig)”: 41.33%, 22.11%, 36.56%.
• “Fair odds”, to the right of “Fair (no-vig)”: 2.42, 4.52, 2.74. The frame above crops this column; on a narrow screen widen the window or scroll the table.

For two outcomes, “Booksum” is 104.34% and “Margin” is 4.34%. “Fair (no-vig)” shows 53.25% and 46.75%; “Odds” shows 1.80 and 2.05, and “Fair odds” (further right) shows 1.88 and 2.14.

The calculator checks the entered prices. It does not determine the settlement period, overtime treatment or refund conditions; those come from the rules of the selected market.