Closing Line Value (CLV)

Closing Line Value measures whether you beat the market. It compares your betting odds to the final (closing) odds—the market's most accurate assessment of true probability. If you consistently get better odds than the closing line, you have edge. If you don't, you're fighting against the market's wisdom. CLV is the single best predictor of long-term betting success because it reflects your actual skill at finding value, independent of luck.

Why CLV Matters
Calculating CLV
CLV Methods
Interpreting Your CLV
CLV vs Actual Profit
Improving Your CLV
Common Mistakes

Why CLV Matters {#why-clv-matters}

The betting market is a prediction machine. Thousands of bettors and bookmakers contribute information, and by closing time, the line reflects the collective wisdom of the market. The closing line is the most accurate available probability estimate.

The Logic

Timing	Information Level	Line Accuracy
Days before	Limited	Lower
Hours before	Growing	Medium
Minutes before	Near-complete	High
At close	Maximum	Highest

If you bet at odds better than closing, you beat the market's best estimate.

Professional Perspective

Why pros track CLV, not just profit:

Scenario	Profit	CLV	What It Means
Lucky bettor	+15%	-3%	Winning by variance, will lose long-term
Unlucky sharp	-5%	+2%	Edge exists, profits coming
True sharp	+8%	+3%	Sustainable edge, sustainable profit
Losing bettor	-12%	-4%	No edge, losing as expected

Short-term results lie. CLV tells the truth.

Calculating CLV {#calculation}

Basic CLV Formula (Odds Method)

\text{CLV \%} = \left( \frac{\text{Your Odds}}{\text{Closing Odds}} - 1 \right) \times 100

Example:

You bet: Team A at 2.20
Closing odds: Team A at 2.00

\text{CLV} = \left( \frac{2.20}{2.00} - 1 \right) \times 100 = 10\%

You secured 10% better odds than the market's final price.

CLV Formula (Implied Probability Method)

\text{CLV \%} = \text{Closing Implied Prob} - \text{Your Implied Prob}

Where Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds

Example:

Your odds: 2.20 → Implied prob = 45.45%
Closing odds: 2.00 → Implied prob = 50.00%

\text{CLV} = 50.00\% - 45.45\% = 4.55\%

No-Vig Closing Line

For accurate CLV, use no-vig closing odds (remove bookmaker margin):

\text{No-Vig Prob}_A = \frac{\text{Implied Prob}_A}{\text{Implied Prob}_A + \text{Implied Prob}_B}

Example with margin:

Team A closes at 1.90 (implied 52.6%)
Team B closes at 2.00 (implied 50.0%)
Total: 102.6% (2.6% margin)

No-vig calculation:

True prob A = 52.6% / 102.6% = 51.3%
No-vig odds A = 1 / 0.513 = 1.95

Use 1.95 (not 1.90) for CLV calculation.

CLV Calculation Table

Your Odds	Closing Odds	CLV %	Interpretation
2.50	2.00	+25%	Excellent value captured
2.20	2.00	+10%	Strong positive CLV
2.05	2.00	+2.5%	Slight edge
2.00	2.00	0%	No edge (market price)
1.95	2.00	-2.5%	Negative CLV
1.80	2.00	-10%	Significant negative CLV

CLV Methods {#methods}

Method 1: Individual Bet CLV

Track CLV for each bet individually. Most precise but requires closing line data.

Tracking template:

Date	Bet	Your Odds	Closing Odds	CLV %	Result
Jan 1	Liverpool ML	2.15	2.00	+7.5%	Win
Jan 2	Over 2.5	1.95	2.05	-4.9%	Loss
Jan 3	Draw	3.50	3.20	+9.4%	Win

Method 2: Average CLV

Calculate mean CLV across all bets:

\text{Avg CLV} = \frac{\sum \text{Individual CLV}_i}{n}

This smooths variance and shows your overall edge.

Method 3: Stake-Weighted CLV

Weight each CLV by stake size for more accurate assessment:

\text{Weighted CLV} = \frac{\sum (\text{CLV}_i \times \text{Stake}_i)}{\sum \text{Stake}_i}

Method 4: Expected vs Actual CLV

Compare your expected CLV (theoretical) with actual results:

Metric	Calculation	Purpose
Expected CLV	From odds movement	Theoretical edge
Realized CLV	From actual results	Actual edge captured
Variance	Expected - Realized	Luck factor

Interpreting Your CLV {#interpreting}

CLV Benchmarks

Average CLV	Interpretation	Expected Outcome
+5% or higher	Elite	Strong profits
+2% to +5%	Professional	Consistent profits
+0.5% to +2%	Slight edge	Marginal profits
-0.5% to +0.5%	No edge	Break-even minus margin
-0.5% to -2%	Negative edge	Consistent losses
Below -2%	Significant leak	Heavy losses

CLV Sample Size

Number of Bets	CLV Reliability
< 100	Very low—high variance
100-500	Low—trends emerging
500-1000	Medium—meaningful data
1000-5000	High—reliable indicator
5000+	Very high—true edge visible

Rule of thumb: Need 500+ bets minimum to trust CLV data.

Confidence Intervals

For 1000 bets with 3% average CLV:

95% confidence interval: approximately ±1.5%
Your true CLV is likely between 1.5% and 4.5%

More bets = tighter confidence = clearer picture.

CLV vs Actual Profit {#clv-vs-profit}

Why They Diverge

Short-term results include variance. CLV measures pure edge.

Simulation: 1000 bettors with +3% CLV over 500 bets:

Percentile	Profit/Loss	CLV
5th (unlucky)	-8%	+3%
25th	+1%	+3%
50th (median)	+5%	+3%
75th	+9%	+3%
95th (lucky)	+18%	+3%

Same edge, wildly different results. Over 5000 bets, these converge.

Expected Profit from CLV

\text{Expected ROI} \approx \text{CLV \%} \times \text{Win Rate Factor}

Rough approximation:

3% CLV at 50% win rate ≈ 3% ROI
3% CLV at 33% win rate (underdogs) ≈ 2% ROI
3% CLV at 67% win rate (favorites) ≈ 4% ROI

Long-Term Convergence

Time Period	CLV-Profit Correlation
100 bets	~0.3 (weak)
500 bets	~0.5 (moderate)
1000 bets	~0.7 (strong)
5000 bets	~0.9 (very strong)

Patience required.

Improving Your CLV {#improving}

Strategy 1: Bet Early

Lines are softest when first released. Sharp action moves them.

Timing	Typical Edge Available
Opening line	Highest
24 hours before	High
6 hours before	Medium
1 hour before	Low
At closing	Zero by definition

Strategy 2: Find Soft Bookmakers

Different books have different line quality:

Bookmaker Type	Line Sharpness	CLV Opportunity
Sharp (Pinnacle)	Very high	Low
Medium books	Medium	Medium
Recreational books	Lower	Higher

Bet at soft books, track against sharp closing lines.

Strategy 3: Specialize

Generalists face efficient markets. Specialists find edges:

Approach	Market Efficiency	CLV Potential
Major leagues, mainstream markets	Very high	Low
Minor leagues, niche sports	Medium	Medium-High
Props, player markets	Lower	Higher

Strategy 4: Speed

In liquid markets, value disappears quickly:

\text{Value Decay} \approx 50\% \text{ within first hour of line release}

Automated alerts and quick execution preserve CLV.

Market	CLV Interpretation
Main markets	True CLV, accurate
Props	Can be misleading—less liquidity
Live betting	Harder to measure, more noise

Mistake 4: Not Tracking Systematically

Selective tracking biases results. Track every bet, even the ones you'd rather forget.

Mistake 5: CLV Obsession Over EV

CLV is a proxy for expected value, not the goal itself. Sometimes:

Low CLV bet is still +EV (inefficient closing line)
High CLV bet was -EV (line moved wrong direction)

Use CLV as diagnostic tool, not religion.

CLV Tracking Tools {#tools}

What to Track

Field	Purpose
Date/Time of bet	Timing analysis
Your odds	Your execution price
Closing odds	Market final price
Stake	For weighted calculations
Result	Actual outcome
Sport/League	Identify strongest edges
Market type	Isolate profitable markets

Automated vs Manual

Method	Pros	Cons
Spreadsheet	Full control, custom analysis	Time-consuming
Betting tracker apps	Automated, convenient	Less flexibility
Bookmaker history	Easy access	Missing closing lines

CLV Calculator - Calculate your closing line value
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Closing Line Value

Closing Line Value (CLV)

Frequently Asked Questions

Evgeny Volkov

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