What TS% Measures and How to Calculate It

True shooting percentage (TS%) measures scoring efficiency across two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws. Calculate it with TS% = PTS / [2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA)] × 100%: points divided by twice the estimated true shooting attempts, expressed as a percentage. TS% describes efficiency over a historical sample; it does not tell you the probability that a player will go Over their next points total.

How to calculate TS% from a box score

You need three numbers from the same game or statistical period: points, field goal attempts and free throw attempts. The NBA Stats glossary provides the TS% formula and definitions.

To calculate TS%:

1. Multiply free throw attempts by 0.44.
2. Add field goal attempts to get estimated true shooting attempts.
3. Double that result.
4. Divide points by the result, then multiply by 100%.

Here is an illustrative stat line, not a real player's game:

First, check the scoring: 8 × 2 + 2 × 3 + 3 = 25 points. The player made 10 of 16 field goal attempts and 3 of 6 free throw attempts.

TS% is rounded to one decimal place here; intermediate values are not rounded. The result applies only to this constructed stat line. It is neither a forecast for the next game nor the probability of making an individual shot.

What do 0.44 and the factor of 2 mean?

The 0.44 factor converts free throw attempts into an estimated contribution to shooting attempts, while multiplying by 2 puts the calculation on a two-point scoring scale. Both are parts of the standard formula, not player-specific settings.

Free throws occur in different situations and sequences, so each free throw attempt cannot simply be treated as a separate full shooting opportunity. The 0.44 factor is an approximation: it is not a free throw success probability or an exact count of a player's possessions. Likewise, FGA + 0.44 × FTA should not be described as an exact possession count.

The factor of 2 is easiest to understand with an idealized example. If a player attempts only two-pointers, makes every shot and takes no free throws, they score two points per attempt and have a TS% of 100%. This explains the scale; it does not mean TS% can never exceed 100%.

How does TS% differ from FG% and eFG%?

Field goal percentage measures shooting accuracy, effective field goal percentage gives extra weight to three-pointers, and TS% also includes free throws. They answer different questions, so their results need not match.

In the same illustrative stat line, there are 10 field goals made, including 2 three-pointers, from 16 field goal attempts:

These differences are not calculation errors: the metrics use different numerators and denominators. In particular, eFG% excludes free throws, while TS% includes both free throw points and the estimated weight of free throw attempts.

What does TS% tell you about a player points prop?

TS% helps describe scoring efficiency, but a player points total also depends on scoring opportunities. Similar efficiency can produce very different point totals when shot and free throw volume differ.

Compare these two illustrative stat lines:

For line B, the calculation is 15 / [2 × (10 + 0.44 × 3)] × 100% ≈ 66.3%. Both TS% values are rounded to one decimal place without rounding intermediate values.

Illustrative comparison: 25 points at 67.1% TS is above a 24.5-point line, while 15 points at 66.3% TS is below it

Illustrative chart, not actual game records or a sportsbook ticket: 25 points meets the condition for Over 24.5 player points; 15 points does not, despite a similar TS%.

This comparison demonstrates the importance of volume. It is only an arithmetic check of two hypothetical totals—not a settled real bet or a forecast.

When using TS% to research a player, consider it alongside:

• The sample period and size. Points and attempts must cover the same period. The size of that sample matters when judging how stable the efficiency might be.
• Minutes and role. Check whether the player's historical opportunities are comparable to their expected workload.
• Field goal and free throw volume. High efficiency alone does not guarantee enough attempts to reach a points total.
• Health and opponent. These are separate inputs that do not appear in the TS% formula.
• The market line and scoring period. Establish the exact points threshold and the period covered by the market.

There is no useful universal cutoff for a “good TS%” without specifying the league, season and player role.

Can you convert TS% into a probability of going Over?

No. TS% does not provide a distribution of future points, so it cannot establish the probability of going Over or Under a player points total. This is a conclusion from the formula and the illustrative comparison above, not a separate NBA rule.

In particular, 67.1% TS does not mean a 67.1% probability of scoring Over 24.5 points. Estimating that probability requires a separate, defensible model of future scoring that accounts for minutes, role and attempt volume. Adding bookmaker odds does not fill that gap.

Odds answer a different question: their implied probability. Open the implied probability calculator, click “Clear” to leave one blank outcome, select “Decimal” if needed, and enter 1.91 in the price field. Read “Implied chance”: 52.36%, from 1 / 1.91, rounded to two decimal places. Leave “Your estimated chance (optional)” blank unless you have an independent probability model; never enter 67.1% TS there. The tool neither calculates TS% nor estimates the probability of a player's future points total.

Use TS% to describe historical scoring efficiency and attempt volume to assess scoring opportunities. Evaluate future outcome probabilities and market prices separately. Neither a high TS% nor a comparison between TS% and implied probability establishes positive expected value.