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What is an Octopus in Football? The Rare NFL Feat Explained
If you've been watching NFL RedZone or checking betting props, you might have heard the announcer scream: "WE HAVE AN OCTOPUS!" 🐙
No, a sea creature didn't invade the field.
In NFL football, an Octopus occurs when the same player scores a touchdown (6 points) and immediately scores the subsequent 2-point conversion (2 points).
Total points: 8. (Like the 8 legs of an octopus).
The Golden Rule
To qualify as an Octopus, the player must be the one who secures the ball in the end zone for both plays. A quarterback throwing a TD and then throwing a 2-point conversion does not get an Octopus (the receivers do).
Octopus Probability Calculator
Want to know the odds of seeing an Octopus in tonight's game? Use our free calculator below based on NFL statistical averages.
Octopus Probability Calculator
Estimate the chance of an Octopus occurring in a game
Teams go for 2 more often when trailing late
*Based on historical NFL conversion rates and player usage.
Origin of the Term
The term was coined in 2019 by Mitch Goldich, a writer for Sports Illustrated. He wanted a catchy name for this specific 8-point play, similar to how baseball has "hitting for the cycle."
The logic is simple:
- Touchdown = 6 points
- 2-point conversion = 2 points
- Total = 8 points
- Creature with 8 legs = Octopus
Since then, the term has been officially adopted by NFL RedZone host Scott Hanson and major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel.
History of the Octopus (1994–Present)
The 2-point conversion was adopted by the NFL in 1994. Before that, an Octopus was impossible.
Initially, coaches were conservative, almost always kicking the extra point. But with the analytics revolution, teams are going for 2 points more aggressively, leading to a surge in Octopuses.
The Rise of the Octopus (NFL History)
Key Trends:
- Analytics: Coaches now know that going for 2 is often mathematically superior to kicking.
- Mobile QBs: Players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are dual threats, running for both TDs and conversions.
- Rule Changes: Moving the extra point kick back to the 15-yard line made kicking harder, incentivizing 2-point attempts.
Novelty sports markets include each-way offers on tournament winners — 'top 3 finish' on golf majors and World Cup groups is the classic each-way setup. The math is different from a straight winner pick because the place fraction shifts with the market. Our each-way calculator applies the correct fraction and place terms so tournament-winner bets get priced like a sharp would price them.
Who Has the Most Octopuses?
The "King of the Octopus" is former Rams RB Todd Gurley, who recorded 4 in his career.
Other active leaders include:
- Patrick Mahomes (Running/Scrambling)
- Jalen Hurts (The "Tush Push" specialist)
- Mark Andrews
- Davante Adams
Beyond novelty football props, the mainstream soccer market for sharp action is Asian handicap — the handicap structure Asian books invented to handle the draw outcome without the 1X2 margin loading. Our Asian handicap calculator converts standard odds into AH equivalents so you can spot when the book's AH quote leaks value vs the implied 1X2 price.
Can You Bet on an Octopus?
Yes! Most major sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars) offer "Any Player to Score an Octopus" as a novelty prop bet, especially during the Super Bowl.
- Typical Odds: +1400 to +2500 (14/1 to 25/1).
- Value: Generally poor. The true odds are often closer to +3000. Use our Implied Probability Calculator to check if the bookie is ripping you off.
When to Bet the Octopus?
Look for games with:
- High Totals (Over 50): More TDs = more chances.
- Aggressive Coaches: Look for teams like the Eagles or Lions who go for 2 often.
- Mobile Quarterbacks: A QB who runs near the goal line doubles the chance of an Octopus.
Betting on a scoring-prop like an octopus is structurally similar to betting on a soccer correct score — both are exact-outcome markets with low probability and inflated odds. Bookmakers build their margin into scoring-props exactly the way they build it into correct-score markets. If you want to see how the math works on the soccer side, our correct score calculator runs a Poisson model to show which exact score is actually priced as value and which is just lottery-ticket odds.
Betting on novelty props like an octopus is one end of the football-market spectrum. The other end, for bettors who want a safer soccer equivalent, is double chance — a market covering 2 of 3 outcomes (home/draw, away/draw, or home/away) in a single bet. Double chance trades high odds for a much lower probability of losing, which is the opposite tradeoff of novelty props. Our double chance calculator converts 1X2 odds into fair double-chance prices so you can spot when the bookmaker's margin inflates the safer line.
Conclusion
The Octopus is one of the most exciting, rare feats in football. It's a testament to a single player's dominance on a drive. While betting on it is a lottery ticket, knowing what it is makes you the smartest person at your Super Bowl party.
Want to learn more betting terms? Check our complete Sports Betting Glossary.
Frequently Asked Questions
Evgeny Volkov
Verified ExpertOver 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.