ICM

What is ICM?

You're on the bubble of a $100,000 tournament. You have 500,000 chips (average stack). Big blind shoves 100,000 chips. You look down at pocket Kings.

In a cash game? Snap call - you're 80% favorite.

In this tournament with ICM? Often fold.

Why? Because those 100,000 chips you risk are worth more in dollars than the 100,000 chips you'd win. Welcome to ICM.

Simple explanation: ICM converts chips into money by recognizing that in tournaments, chips ≠ dollars. Your first chip is worth less than your last chip, and doubling up doesn't double your prize pool equity.

TL;DR - Quick Reference

Bottom line: ICM explains why tight play near the bubble is mathematically correct, not "scared money." It's survival value calculation.

Understanding ICM for Tournament Players

Why Chips Aren't Money

In cash games:

• 100 chips = $100 (always)
• Doubling up = doubling your money
• You can rebuy anytime
• Chip EV = Dollar EV

In tournaments:

• 100 chips might be worth $50,$100, or $200 depending on context
• Doubling up ≠ doubling prize pool equity
• You can't rebuy after elimination
• Chip EV ≠ Dollar EV

The Fundamental ICM Truth

First place gets 40% of prize pool but doesn't need 100% of the chips.

Each additional chip is worth less than the last because:

1. You can't win more than first place money
2. More chips = higher risk of costly elimination
3. Other players also have survival value

The Mathematics of ICM

Basic ICM Formula (3 Players)

For a player with stack S out of total chips T:

$Equity = P_{1st} \times Payout_1 + P_{2nd} \times Payout_2 + P_{3rd} \times Payout_3$

Where probability of finishing 1st is approximately: $P_{1st} = \frac{S}{T}$

But this is simplified. Real ICM uses recursive calculation accounting for all elimination scenarios.

ICM Calculation Example

3 players, $10,000 prize pool (50% / 30% / 20%):

• Player A: 10,000 chips (50%)
• Player B: 6,000 chips (30%)
• Player C: 4,000 chips (20%)

"Chip EV" (wrong) says:

• Player A: $5,000 (50% of chips)
• Player B: $3,000 (30% of chips)
• Player C: $2,000 (20% of chips)

ICM (correct) says:

• **Player A: $4,383** (not$5,000!)
• Player B: $3,179
• Player C: $2,438

Why the difference?

• Player A can't win more than $5,000 (1st place) even with all chips
• Player C has "survival value" - they can't finish worse than 3rd ($2,000 guaranteed)
• Player A risks more dollar equity per chip than Player C

Player A has 50% of chips but only 43.8% of prize pool equity. That's ICM pressure.

When ICM Matters Most

1. Tournament Bubble (Pay Jump from $0 to Money)

Scenario: 10 players left, 9 get paid. You're mid-stack.

ICM pressure:

• Massive pay jump ($0 →$500)
• Short stacks desperate to fold into money
• Big stacks can bully without calling
• Your strategy: Play extremely tight, let short stacks eliminate each other

Example: You have AK, big stack shoves. Normally +EV call. With ICM? Fold - your tournament life is worth more than the chips. The risk premium increases massively at this point.

2. Final Table Bubble

Scenario: 10 players → 9-handed final table with big pay jump.

Similar to money bubble but less extreme. Still significant ICM pressure.

3. Short-Handed Play (3-5 Players)

ICM pressure is maximum at 3-4 players because:

• Large pay jumps between places
• Each decision heavily impacts final placement
• Chip redistribution has huge equity consequences

4. Satellite Tournaments

Everyone who wins gets the same prize (tournament ticket).

ICM strategy: Once you have enough chips to finish top X, fold everything. Additional chips have zero value.

Example: Top 10 get $1,000 ticket. You have 12th biggest stack out of 15 players. Fold every hand until 5 players bust.

ICM Strategy Adjustments

When YOU Have Big Stack

Advantages:

• Apply pressure to medium stacks (they risk more)
• Steal blinds profitably
• Accumulate chips at lower risk

This aggressive play style requires good bankroll management to stay profitable long-term.

Mistakes to avoid: ❌ Don't bully short stacks - they have nothing to lose, will call lighter ❌ Avoid big stack vs. big stack wars - you both risk massive equity ✅ Target medium stacks - they feel maximum ICM pressure

The correct position at the table is crucial for this strategy.

Example: You have 40% of chips, medium stack has 25%, short stack has 10%.

• Shoving into medium stack: High fold equity (they risk ladder position)
• Shoving into short stack: Low fold equity (they're desperate, will call)

When YOU Have Medium Stack

ICM pressure is maximum on YOU.

Strategy:

• Play tighter than chip EV suggests
• Survival > chip accumulation
• Let short stacks and big stacks battle
• Avoid marginal spots

Example: Bubble with AQ offsuit, big stack shoves.

• Chip EV: Probably call (60%+ equity vs. range)
• ICM: Fold - risking your stack is -$EV even if +chip EV

This feels "weak" but is mathematically correct.

When YOU Have Short Stack

ICM pressure is LOWEST on you - paradoxically, this means aggression.

Why:

• You can't fall much further in payout
• Big/medium stacks don't want to call and eliminate you
• Your fold equity is massive

Strategy:

• Push/fold aggressively with strong all-in decisions
• Wider shoving ranges than chip EV
• Force big/medium stacks into ICM-punished calls
• Understand your pot odds to find optimal push ranges

Example: You have 8BB on bubble, Button with K9o.

• Chip EV: Marginal push
• ICM: Clear push - big blind faces ICM suicide to call even with AJ

Common ICM Mistakes

Mistake #1: Calling Too Wide on the Bubble

❌ Wrong: "I have AK, I have to call this shove!"

✅ Right: "I have AK with 20BB. Big stack shoved. Calling risks my tournament life for a min-cash difference. Fold."

Why it's wrong: Even premium hands can be ICM folds when:

• You're mid-stack on bubble
• Pay jump is large
• You have comfortable stack to fold into money

ICM Trainer Lesson: Run this scenario in the ICM Trainer - you'll see AK is often a fold.

Mistake #2: Playing Chip EV vs. Short Stacks

❌ Wrong: "I have 50% of chips, I can bully the 5BB short stack with any two cards."

✅ Right: "Short stack will call very wide (ICM pressure low on them). I need actual equity to justify aggression."

Why it's wrong: Short stacks have the least ICM pressure. They'll call your bluffs because they can't fall much further in payouts.

Mistake #3: Big Stack vs. Big Stack Wars

❌ Wrong: "I'll battle this other big stack for dominance!"

✅ Right: "We're both risking massive dollar equity. Unless I have the nuts, I'll let them battle medium/short stacks instead."

Why it's wrong: Two big stacks fighting gifts equity to the rest of the field. The loser falls from ~30% equity to ~15% equity in one hand.

ICM Rule: Avoid confrontation with comparable or larger stacks unless you have monster hands.

Mistake #4: Not Adjusting to Short Stack Desperation

❌ Wrong: "I'm the big stack on the bubble, I can shove any two cards and everyone folds."

✅ Right: "Medium stacks will fold a lot (high ICM pressure), but short stacks will call wide (low ICM pressure). I need to adjust my shoving range accordingly."

Reality: Short stacks on bubble call wider than chip EV because they're already near minimum payout.

ICM Chops (Deal-Making)

When final table players agree to split the prize pool, ICM determines fair splits.

Example: 3-Way Chop

$10,000 prize pool (50%/30%/20%):

• Player A: 12,000 chips
• Player B: 5,000 chips
• Player C: 3,000 chips

"Equal chop" (wrong): $3,333 each

"Chip chop" (wrong):

• Player A: $6,000 (60% of chips)
• Player B: $2,500 (25% of chips)
• Player C: $1,500 (15% of chips)

ICM chop (correct):

• Player A: $4,891
• Player B: $2,986
• Player C: $2,123

Why ICM chop is fair: It accounts for payout structure, not just chip distribution. Player A has chip lead but can't win 60% of prize pool (max is 50% = 1st place).

Use an ICM calculator to negotiate fair deals. Don't accept chip chops - they favor big stacks unfairly.

ICM vs. Chip EV: Decision Examples

Scenario 1: Bubble Call Decision

Setup:

• 11 players left, top 10 paid ($500 min cash)
• You have 300,000 chips (2nd place)
• Short stack (100,000) shoves UTG
• You have AK in big blind

Chip EV: Clear call (AK vs. UTG range = ~63% equity)

ICM Analysis:

• If you call and lose: Drop to ~10th place, might not cash
• If you fold: Almost guaranteed cash by outlasting shorter stacks
• Dollar risk: ~$500 (cashing vs. not)
• Dollar gain: ~$200 (improving ladder position)

ICM Decision: FOLD

This feels insane, but the math is clear - you risk more in bubble/ladder value than you gain in chip EV.

Scenario 2: Final Table Push

Setup:

• 4 players left, payouts: $10,000/$6,000/$4,000/$2,000
• You: 600,000 chips (25%)
• Villain: 1,200,000 chips (50%)
• You have QQ on button

Chip EV: Shove (QQ crushes button opening range)

ICM Analysis:

• You have $4,200 ICM equity currently
• If you lose all-in: Drop to $2,000 (4th place)
• If you double: Increase to ~$5,500 ICM equity
• Risk: $2,200 ($4,200 - $2,000)
• Gain: $1,300 ($5,500 - $4,200)

Risk-reward ratio: Risk $2,200 to win$1,300 = need 62.9% equity (not just 50%)

Against villain's calling range, do you have 63%+? Depends on villain's ICM awareness.

If villain knows ICM: They call tighter, you can shove wider. If villain is ICM-unaware: They call chip-EV, you should tighten.

Related Concepts

• Equity: ICM modifies hand equity calculations. A hand with 70% chip equity might have 55% dollar equity due to ICM pressure.
• Tournament Strategy: ICM is the mathematical foundation of tournament poker strategy. Every final table decision should consider ICM.
• Expected Value (EV): In tournaments, chip EV ≠ dollar EV. ICM bridges this gap by calculating $ EV from chip stacks.
• Pot Odds: Traditional pot odds assume chip EV. ICM-adjusted pot odds account for survival value and pay jumps.
• Bubble Play: The bubble is the most extreme ICM scenario. Understanding ICM is essential for profitable bubble play.

Practical Tools

ICM Calculators and Trainers

1. ICM Trainer - Interactive ICM scenarios with instant feedback
2. Equity Calculator - Calculate hand vs. range equity, then adjust for ICM
3. Tournament Calculator - Full tournament simulations with ICM modeling
4. Push-Fold Calculator - ICM-adjusted push/fold charts for short stack play

ICM Training Plan

Week 1: Basics

• Understand why chips ≠ money
• Run 3-player ICM scenarios
• Practice bubble fold decisions

Week 2: Application

• Final table simulations in ICM Trainer
• Identify when to deviate from chip EV
• Study big stack, medium stack, short stack strategies

Week 3: Advanced

• ICM-adjusted hand ranges
• Deal-making calculations
• Exploitative ICM adjustments

Key Takeaways

• ✅ Chips ≠ Dollars - First chip worth less than last chip due to payout structure
• ✅ Bubble is extreme ICM - Massive pay jumps create counter-intuitive folds
• ✅ Stack size determines strategy - Big/medium/short stacks have different ICM pressures
• ✅ AK can be a fold - Even premium hands are ICM folds in high-pressure spots
• ✅ Short stacks are aggressive - Low ICM pressure allows wider shoving
• ✅ Medium stacks are tight - Maximum ICM pressure forces cautious play
• ✅ Use ICM for deals - Don't accept chip chops, demand ICM-fair splits

Remember: Learning ICM separates good tournament players from great ones. Master it, and you'll win 20-30% more in tournaments by avoiding costly ICM mistakes.

FAQ

When should I start thinking about ICM?

ICM becomes relevant when pay jumps are significant:

• Early tournament: Ignore ICM, play chip EV (pay jumps are tiny)
• Near bubble: Start considering ICM (large $0 → min cash jump)
• Final 2 tables: ICM is critical (every elimination = big pay jump)
• Final table: ICM dominates all decisions (except heads-up)

Rule of thumb: If busting costs you more than one buy-in worth of ladder money, use ICM.

How do I calculate ICM during a hand?

You don't. ICM calculations are too complex for real-time mental math.

Instead:

1. Study ICM concepts beforehand
2. Use ICM Trainer to build intuition
3. Memorize common scenarios (bubble folds, short stack shoves)
4. Apply heuristics at the table

Heuristics:

• Bubble/final table? Tighten medium stacks, loosen short stacks
• Big pay jump? Value survival over chip accumulation
• Short stack shoves? They're likely shoving wider than chip EV

Can ICM tell me to fold pocket Aces?

Yes, but extremely rarely.

Scenario where AA is an ICM fold:

• You're 2nd in chips on bubble with comfortable stack
• Big stack shoves (covering you)
• Short stack is all-in separately
• If you fold, short stack likely busts, you cash

Math: Your tournament life is worth more than the chip EV of calling with AA, because you're almost guaranteed to cash by folding.

This happens <0.1% of the time. Don't look for AA folds - look for AQ, AJ, small pairs where ICM folds are common.

How does ICM affect heads-up play?

ICM becomes irrelevant heads-up because:

• Only two payout spots left (1st and 2nd)
• Chip EV = Dollar EV (doubling up = moving from 2nd to 1st)
• No ladder/bubble considerations

Heads-up strategy: Ignore ICM, play chip EV. Aggression and reads matter, not ICM pressure.

Should I take an ICM chop or play it out?

Depends on your edge:

Take the chop if:

• You're less skilled than opponents
• You're tired / not playing your best
• ICM value is higher than your expected value playing out

Play it out if:

• You have skill edge over opponents
• You're in great mental state
• Opponents are ICM-unaware (you can exploit)

Example: ICM chop offers you $4,000. If you think you have 30$8,000 (1st) + 70% chance of $3,000 (average of 2nd/3rd):

EV = 0.30 \times 8000 + 0.70 \times 3000 = 2400 + 2100 = $4,500

You should play it out (expected $4,500 vs. guaranteed$4,000 chop).

How does variance factor into ICM?

ICM assumes zero variance (infinite sample). In reality:

• Short sample (1 tournament): High variance, ICM suggests cautious play
• Long sample (100+ tournaments): Lower variance, can take more ICM-negative risks for chip accumulation

Bankroll management rule: If you're playing above your bankroll level, lean more conservative than ICM suggests. ICM calculates this tournament's EV, not your bankroll's survival.

Use the Bankroll Calculator to determine how many buy-ins you need to comfortably play tournament stakes.

Final Thought: ICM is the single most important concept separating amateur from professional tournament poker. Study it, practice it with the ICM Trainer, and watch your tournament ROI increase by 20-30%. The math doesn't lie.