TG

Bad Beat Calculator

Find out exactly how unlucky your bad beat was. Calculate the probability and share your poker horror story.

Try an example:

0/5

Famous Bad Beats

1 in 2,000
WSOP 2019 Main Event
Quads losing to royal flush
1 in 45
Moneymaker's Bluff
The 2003 WSOP winning hand
1 in 820
Aces vs Aces
AA cracked by AA with flush

Understanding Variance in Poker

Bad beats are an inevitable part of poker. Every time you get your money in as a favorite, there's still a chance you'll lose. That's not bad luck - that's the game working as intended.

The key to handling bad beats is understanding that short-term results don't reflect your skill. A player who consistently gets money in as a 70% favorite will lose 30% of the time. Over 100 such situations, they'll lose around 30 times. The math doesn't care about your feelings - it just plays out. Focus on making good decisions and let the results take care of themselves.

The most famous bad beat in poker history? Quad aces losing to a royal flush — with real odds of ~1 in 165 million, not the 2.7 billion ESPN claimed.

Written by

author-credentials.sysE-E-A-T
Evgeniy Volkov

Evgeny Volkov

Verified Expert
Math & Software Engineer, iGaming Expert

Over 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.

Experience10+
SpecializationiGaming
Status
Active
FAQ

FAQ

We calculate your equity (chance of winning) based on the cards shown, then determine how unlikely it was for you to lose from that position.
A bad beat occurs when you get your money in as a significant favorite (typically 70%+ equity) and still lose. The more equity you had, the worse the beat.
This is called negativity bias - we remember bad beats much more vividly than winning as favorites. Over thousands of hands, the math evens out.
No, bad beats are part of poker. The key is to get your money in good and let variance work itself out over time. That's why bankroll management is crucial.