Outs

Outs are your lifeline when you're behind—the specific cards that transform your losing hand into a winner. Counting outs is the first step in poker math: once you know how many cards help you, you can calculate your equity, compare it to pot odds, and make mathematically correct decisions. A flush draw has 9 outs. An open-ended straight has 8. A gutshot has 4. Memorize these numbers and the shortcuts to convert them into percentages. Outs are the bridge between "I think I should call" and "I know this call is profitable."

Understanding Outs
Counting Outs
Converting Outs to Equity
Clean vs. Dirty Outs
Combination Draws
Using Outs Strategically
Common Scenarios
Quick Reference

Understanding Outs {#understanding}

What Outs Mean

\text{Outs} = \text{Cards in Deck} - \text{Cards You've Seen} - \text{Cards That Don't Help}

Simple example:

You have: A♠ K♠
Board: Q♠ 7♠ 2♦
Flush outs: 13 spades - 4 seen = 9 outs

Why Outs Matter

Application	How Outs Help
Equity calculation	Know your winning %
Pot odds decisions	Call or fold profitably
Semi-bluff planning	Assess backup equity
Hand reading	Know opponent's possible outs

The Deck Breakdown

Component	Cards
Total deck	52
Your hole cards	-2
Community cards (flop)	-3
Unknown (outs pool)	47

On the turn: 46 unknown cards remain.

Counting Outs {#counting}

Standard Draw Outs

Draw Type	Outs	Cards
Flush draw	9	Remaining suited cards
Open-ended straight (OESD)	8	Two connecting ranks
Gutshot straight	4	One specific rank
Two overcards	6	3 of each overcard
One overcard	3	3 of that rank
Pocket pair to set	2	2 remaining cards
Two pair to full house	4	2 of each paired rank
Set to full house/quads	7	3 board pairs + 1 quad

Flush Draw Counting

Your hand: A♥ K♥
Board: J♥ 7♥ 2♣

Hearts in deck: 13
Hearts you've seen: 4 (A♥, K♥, J♥, 7♥)
Outs: 13 - 4 = 9

Straight Draw Counting

Open-Ended Straight Draw (OESD):

Your hand: 9♠ 8♥
Board: T♦ 7♣ 2♥

Complete with: Any J (4 cards) or any 6 (4 cards)
Outs: 8

Gutshot (Inside Straight):

Your hand: 9♠ 8♥
Board: T♦ 6♣ 2♥

Complete with: Any 7 only (4 cards)
Outs: 4

Double Gutshot:

Your hand: 9♠ 6♥
Board: T♦ 8♣ 5♥

Complete with: Any 7 (4) or any 4 (4, but need different card)
Wait - this isn't double gutshot. Let me fix:

Your hand: J♠ 8♥
Board: T♦ 9♣ 6♥

Complete with: Any Q (4) or any 7 (4)
Outs: 8 (same as OESD!)

Overcard Counting

Your hand: A♠ K♥
Board: Q♦ 7♣ 2♥

Overcards: A and K
Outs to top pair: 3 Aces + 3 Kings = 6

But beware: opponent might have AQ, KQ, etc.

Converting Outs to Equity {#converting}

The Rule of 2 and 4

Situation	Formula	Accuracy
One card to come	Outs × 2	±1-2%
Two cards to come	Outs × 4	±1-4%

Outs to Equity Table

Outs	One Card (×2)	Two Cards (×4)	Exact (Two Cards)
1	2%	4%	4.3%
2	4%	8%	8.4%
3	6%	12%	12.5%
4	8%	16%	16.5%
5	10%	20%	20.4%
6	12%	24%	24.1%
7	14%	28%	27.8%
8	16%	32%	31.5%
9	18%	36%	35.0%
10	20%	40%	38.4%
11	22%	44%	41.7%
12	24%	48%	45.0%
13	26%	52%	48.1%
14	28%	56%	51.2%
15	30%	60%	54.1%
16	32%	64%	57.0%
17	34%	68%	59.8%
18	36%	72%	62.4%
20	40%	80%	67.5%
21	42%	84%	70.0%

Note: Rule of 4 overestimates above 8 outs. For more accuracy, use: Outs × 4 - (Outs - 8) for outs > 8.

Exact Formula

For one card (turn or river):

\text{Equity} = \frac{\text{Outs}}{\text{Unseen Cards}}

For two cards (flop to river):

\text{Equity} = 1 - \frac{(47 - \text{Outs})(46 - \text{Outs})}{47 \times 46}

Clean vs. Dirty Outs {#clean-dirty}

What Are Clean Outs?

Clean outs improve your hand to a definite winner.

Your hand: 8♠ 7♠
Board: 9♦ 6♣ 2♥

OESD outs: Any T or 5
All 8 outs are CLEAN - straight always wins

What Are Dirty Outs?

Dirty outs improve your hand but might help opponent more.

Your hand: 8♠ 7♠
Board: 9♠ 6♠ 2♠

Straight outs: T♠ or 5♠
These are DIRTY - they complete a flush for opponent!
Clean straight outs: T♥, T♦, T♣, 5♥, 5♦, 5♣ = 6

Discounting Dirty Outs

Scenario	Discount
Paired board	Opponent might have full house
Three-flush board	Opponent might have flush
Connected board	Opponent might have higher straight
Opponent shows strength	Your outs might be dead

Rule of thumb: Discount dirty outs by 50-100% based on likelihood opponent has you beaten.

Discount Examples

Your Draw	Board	Raw Outs	Clean Outs	Why
Flush draw	K♥ 9♥ 4♥ (you have Q♥ J♥)	9	9	All clean (nut flush)
Flush draw	A♥ 9♥ 4♥ (you have Q♥ J♥)	9	7-8	Opponent might have A♥
OESD	T♠ 9♠ 8♦ (you have 7♣ 6♣)	8	4-6	Higher straights possible
Overcards	Q♦ 8♣ 3♥ (you have A♠ K♠)	6	3-4	Opponent might have AQ/KQ

Your hand: A♠ 5♠
Board: K♠ 9♠ 8♣

Flush outs: 9 spades
Gutshot outs (need 7): 4 sevens
Overlap: 7♠ counted twice
Total outs: 9 + 4 - 1 = 12 outs (~45% two cards)

Flush Draw + OESD

Your hand: J♠ T♠
Board: 9♠ 8♣ 2♠

Flush outs: 9 spades
OESD outs (Q or 7): 8 cards
Overlap: Q♠ and 7♠ counted twice
Total outs: 9 + 8 - 2 = 15 outs (~54% two cards)

Flush Draw + Pair

Your hand: A♠ K♠
Board: Q♠ 7♠ 3♦

Flush outs: 9 spades
Pair outs: 3 Aces + 3 Kings = 6
Overlap: A♠ and K♠ counted twice
Total outs: 9 + 6 - 2 = 13 outs

BUT: Pair might not be enough vs. opponent's set/two pair
Effective outs: ~11-12 (discounting pair outs)

Monster Draw Outs

Draw Combination	Outs	Equity (Two Cards)
Flush + Gutshot	12	45%
Flush + OESD	15	54%
Flush + OESD + Overcards	18+	60%+
Pair + Flush + OESD	20+	65%+

Monster draws often have more equity than made hands!

Using Outs Strategically {#strategy}

Comparing Outs to Pot Odds

\text{Call Correct if:} \quad \frac{\text{Outs} \times \text{Street Multiplier}}{100} > \text{Pot Odds Required}

Your Outs	One Card Equity	Pot Odds < This = Call
4	9%	10% (10:1 odds)
6	13%	15% (6:1 odds)
8	17%	20% (4:1 odds)
9	19%	20% (4:1 odds)
12	26%	30% (2.5:1 odds)
15	32%	35% (2:1 odds)

Quick Decision Framework

Pot Odds	Minimum Outs (One Card)
10% (10:1)	5 outs
15% (6:1)	7-8 outs
20% (4:1)	10 outs
25% (3:1)	12-13 outs
33% (2:1)	15-16 outs

Implied Odds Adjustment

With good implied odds, you can call with fewer outs:

\text{Adjusted Outs Needed} = \text{Base Outs} \times \frac{\text{Current Pot}}{\text{Current Pot} + \text{Implied Winnings}}

Common Scenarios {#scenarios}

Scenario 1: Flush Draw on Flop

You: A♠ K♠ Board: Q♠ 7♠ 2♦ Pot: $100, Opponent bets$ 50

Factor	Value
Outs	9
One card equity	19%
Two card equity	35%
Pot odds	$50 /$ 200 = 25%
Decision (one card)	19% < 25% = Fold*
Decision (all-in)	35% > 25% = Call

*Unless implied odds justify

Scenario 2: Gutshot on Turn

You: J♠ T♥ Board: K♦ Q♣ 5♠ 2♥ Pot: $80, Opponent bets$ 40

Factor	Value
Outs	4 (any Ace)
One card equity	9%
Pot odds	$40 /$ 160 = 25%
Decision	9% < 25% = Clear Fold

Scenario 3: Monster Draw

You: 8♠ 7♠ Board: 9♠ 6♠ 2♦ Pot: $100, Opponent bets$ 100

Factor	Value
OESD outs	8 (any T or 5)
Flush outs	9 (remaining spades)
Overlap	-2 (T♠ and 5♠)
Total outs	15
Two card equity	54%
Pot odds	$100 /$ 300 = 33%
Decision	54% > 33% = Easy Call/Raise!

Scenario 4: Overcards (Risky)

You: A♥ K♦ Board: Q♠ 8♣ 3♥ Pot: $50, Opponent bets$ 25

Factor	Value
Overcard outs	6
Clean outs	~3-4 (some A/K give opponent two pair)
Adjusted equity	7-9%
Pot odds	$25 /$ 100 = 25%
Decision	Even with 6 raw outs, likely fold

Quick Reference {#reference}

Memorize These Outs

Draw	Outs	One Card	Two Cards
Gutshot	4	9%	17%
Overcards	6	13%	24%
OESD	8	17%	32%
Flush Draw	9	19%	35%
Flush + GS	12	26%	45%
Flush + OESD	15	32%	54%

Rule of 2 and 4 Summary

ONE card to come: Outs × 2 = Approximate %
TWO cards to come: Outs × 4 = Approximate %

Outs Cheat Sheet

4 outs  →  9%  / 17%
6 outs  → 13%  / 24%
8 outs  → 17%  / 32%
9 outs  → 19%  / 35%
12 outs → 26%  / 45%
15 outs → 32%  / 54%

Outs Calculator - Count outs automatically
Equity Calculator - Precise equity calculation
Pot Odds Calculator - Compare outs to pot odds

Outs

Outs

Frequently Asked Questions

Evgeny Volkov

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