Bankroll Growth Calculator(2026)

Flat staking uses a fixed unit size — say $20 per bet — regardless of how your bankroll changes. Compounding scales the unit with your bankroll: at +50% bankroll, your unit is +50%. Compounding accelerates growth at the cost of bigger drawdowns.

A common rule is at every +25% bankroll milestone — re-baseline your unit on the new total. Below $1,000 starting bankrolls, wait for +50% before re-sizing to avoid jumpy stakes from variance.

At a 1% edge with 2% units, the median path doubles in roughly 3,500 bets — about 3 years at 1,000 bets per year. The 5th-percentile path may take 8,000+ bets. Variance dominates short horizons.

5-15% annual growth on a verified edge is realistic. Tools or services promising 50%+ monthly growth are either taking dangerous full-Kelly risk or misrepresenting variance. Compound growth is slow but durable.

A mixed approach is healthiest: compound until you hit a milestone (+50%, +100%), then withdraw 25-30% of profits and let the rest compound. This banks real money while preserving growth.

Even with a clear edge, real paths swing wildly. The 5th-95th percentile cone in our chart shows the realistic range. Two bettors with the same edge and same plan can land 3-5x apart over 1,000 bets purely from variance.

A genuine +1% edge is enough to grow long-term. Below +0.5%, the bookmaker's vig and your variance will dominate. Most retail bettors don't have a real edge — they're paying ~5% on every bet and don't notice.

Three reasons: negative true edge after vig, over-staking (5%+ units when 1-2% is correct), and emotional bet sizing (chasing losses, doubling on tilt). The math punishes all three quickly.

Full Kelly often suggests 5-10% units on small edges, but full Kelly maximizes growth at the cost of brutal drawdowns (50%+ is normal). Most professionals use 1/4 to 1/2 Kelly for psychological survival.

Track Closing-Line Value (CLV). If your average odds beat closing odds by 1-2%+, you have a real edge. ROI alone is noisy — 500 bets with +5% ROI can come from luck or skill. CLV separates them.

Edges decay. Sharps copy your angles, books adjust lines, public catches on. Re-evaluate your edge every 500-1,000 bets. If CLV drops below +1%, your edge is gone — stop scaling units up.

Not if your process is sound. Drawdowns of 30-50% from peak are normal at 2-5% Kelly. If the drawdown comes from edge erosion (CLV gone), pause and rebuild. If it's variance, hold the line.

The universal Bankroll Calculator sizes your unit and shows risk of ruin for any sport or game. This tool is narrower — it projects how compounding (or flat) plays out over a long horizon, with side-by-side comparisons.

Run the calc with one stake setting, save it via 'Save snapshot,' then change the stake percent and re-run. The history log shows every snapshot — compare median final bankroll, target probability, and bust rate.