Wong Teaser Strategy 2026: Complete NFL Betting Guide

Picture this: it's Week 14, and the Chiefs are -8 against the Broncos. The total is 44.5. Your gut says Kansas City wins but maybe doesn't cover. Instead of sweating the 8-point spread, you tease the Chiefs down to -2 and pair them with another qualified game. You've just crossed through both 3 and 7 — and Stanford Wong proved decades ago that this exact move is one of the few consistently profitable bets in all of sports.

The Wong Teaser isn't a gimmick or a trend — it's a mathematically proven strategy that has survived over two decades of NFL betting because it exploits the fundamental structure of football scoring. In 2026, with odds tools and instant line comparisons at your fingertips, executing this strategy is easier than ever.

This guide breaks down every rule, every number, and gives you an interactive checker to evaluate any game in seconds.

TL;DR — Wong Teaser Quick Reference

Core Rules at a Glance

Who This Guide Is For

If you already know what a point spread is and have placed at least a few NFL bets, you're ready. We'll cover the math for those who want it, but the strategy itself boils down to a simple checklist — and we've built a calculator that does the checking for you.

What Is a Wong Teaser? Stanford Wong & the Math Behind It

Stanford Wong's Original Research

Stanford Wong (the pen name of mathematician John Ferguson) published Sharp Sports Betting in 2001. In it, he analyzed thousands of NFL games and discovered something that sportsbooks hoped nobody would notice: certain teaser configurations give the bettor a mathematical edge.

His key insight was simple. NFL games cluster around specific point margins — especially 3 and 7 — because touchdowns (6+1) and field goals (3) are the dominant scoring plays. A 6-point teaser that crosses through these numbers captures a disproportionate chunk of outcomes, tipping the expected value in the bettor's favor.

How a 6-Point Teaser Works

A standard teaser lets you adjust the point spread by a fixed number of points on two or more games. All legs must win for the teaser to pay.

Here's what it looks like in practice:

The magic is in rows 1 and 2 — those tease through both key numbers, capturing the largest margin-of-victory clusters.

The +EV Proof: Why Wong Teasers Beat the Market

Most bets at a sportsbook have a negative expected value — the bookmaker margin ensures the house profits over time. Wong Teasers are the exception because the teaser pricing doesn't fully account for the disproportionate clustering of NFL scores around 3 and 7.

Break-Even Math at -110 Odds

At standard -110 teaser odds, you risk $110 to win $100. The break-even win rate is:

$\text{Break-Even} = \frac{\text{Risk}}{\text{Risk} + \text{Payout}} = \frac{110}{110 + 100} = 52.38\%$

Each qualified Wong Teaser leg wins approximately 73% of the time. For a 2-team teaser:

$P(\text{both win}) = 0.73 \times 0.73 = 53.29\%$

That 53.29% vs the 52.38% break-even gives you an edge of roughly +$1.91 per $110 wagered. It's small, but it's consistent and mathematically real — similar in concept to the edges you'd find using a no-vig calculator to identify fair odds.

Core Rules of the Wong Teaser Strategy (Updated 2026)

Rule 1 — Two-Team, 6-Point Teaser Only

Stick to exactly two teams and exactly six points. Three-team teasers compound the risk exponentially — even at slightly better odds, the third leg drops your overall win probability below break-even. And 6 points is the minimum that consistently crosses both key numbers from typical NFL spreads.

Some bettors ask about 6.5- or 7-point teasers. The extra half-point or full point costs additional juice (-120 to -130), and the incremental win rate doesn't offset the worse odds. Six points at -110 is the sweet spot.

Rule 2 — Cross Key Numbers 3 and 7

This is the heart of the strategy. Your teased spread must pass through the numbers 3 and 7 — not land on them, but cross them completely.

Qualifying spread ranges for favorites:

• -7.5 to -9: Teasing to -1.5 to -3 → crosses through 7 and possibly 3
• -8 to -9.5: Teasing to -2 to -3.5 → crosses through both 7 and 3 ✅
• -1 to -2.5: Teasing to +3.5 to +5 → crosses through 3 ✅

Qualifying spread ranges for underdogs:

• +1 to +2.5: Teasing to +7 to +8.5 → crosses through 3 and 7 ✅
• +1.5 to +3: Teasing to +7.5 to +9 → crosses through 7 ✅

The ideal scenario is crossing both 3 and 7. If you can only cross one, crossing 3 is more valuable (15.4% frequency vs 9.1% for 7).

Rule 3 — Target Totals Under 49

Lower-scoring games are more predictable. When the total is under 49, the margin of victory clusters more tightly around the key numbers. High-scoring shootouts introduce more variance and make teaser legs less reliable.

Think about it: in a 48-44 game, the margin is 4 — but the game was wild and unpredictable. In a 20-17 game, the margin is 3 — a classic NFL grinder where the key numbers dominate.

Rule 4 — Prioritize Road Favorites and Home Underdogs

Historical data shows the strongest Wong Teaser results come from:

1. Road favorites (-1 to -3) teased to underdogs through 3 → highest single-leg win rate
2. Home underdogs (+1 to +3) teased through 7 → second highest win rate

This makes sense intuitively. Road favorites are typically strong teams that the market slightly undervalues on the road. Home underdogs get the crowd and the extra points. Both scenarios align with crossing key numbers.

When to Bend Rule 4

Rule 4 is the most flexible of the four. If a game perfectly crosses both 3 and 7 with a total under 45, but it's a home favorite, you can still consider it. The key number crossing and low total matter more than the home/road split.

The hierarchy is: Key numbers > Total < 49 > Team situation.

NFL Key Number Analysis: Why 3 and 7 Dominate

Margin of Victory Distribution

Here's why the Wong Teaser works in one chart. Nearly half of all NFL games are decided by 7 or fewer points, with massive spikes at exactly 3 and 7:

The Cumulative Impact of Crossing Key Numbers

When you tease a spread by 6 points, you're not just moving through one number — you're capturing a wide band of outcomes. Let's quantify this with the data from our NFL betting strategy guide:

Compare this to a standard parlay where you get better odds but no point adjustment — the teaser's ability to cross these key numbers is what creates the edge that parlays can't offer.

Wong Teaser Calculator — Check Any Game Instantly

How to Use the Calculator

Enter the game spread, total, and team situation below. The checker evaluates all five Wong Teaser criteria and shows you whether the game qualifies, partially qualifies, or doesn't qualify — plus the estimated EV.

Understanding the EV Output

The calculator shows expected value (EV) per $110 risked at -110 odds. Here's how to interpret the results:

• Positive EV (green): The teaser has a mathematical edge. The higher the number, the stronger the play.
• Near-zero EV (yellow): The game partially qualifies. One or more rules are broken, reducing the edge to near break-even.
• Negative EV (red): The teaser doesn't qualify. You're better off with a straight bet or alternative approach.

The EV Formula Explained

The full EV calculation for a 2-team teaser at -110:

$EV = \left(P_{leg1} \times P_{leg2} \times \$100\right) - \left((1 - P_{leg1} \times P_{leg2}) \times \$110\right)$

Where $P_{leg1}$ and $P_{leg2}$ are the individual leg win probabilities. For a perfectly qualified Wong Teaser with both legs at 73%:

$EV = (0.73 \times 0.73 \times 100) - ((1 - 0.5329) \times 110) = 53.29 - 51.37 = +\$1.92$

You can cross-check your implied probability against these numbers to validate any line.

10-Point Teaser Strategy: When Extra Points Make Sense

When to Use 10-Point Teasers

The 10-point teaser is the Wong Teaser's bigger, more expensive cousin. At -130 to -140 odds, the break-even rate jumps to 56.5-58.3%. So when does it make sense?

Use 10-point teasers when:

• You can cross through three or more key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14)
• The total is under 44 (even lower-scoring environment)
• You're teasing a home underdog from +3 to +13 or similar range
• Odds are -130 or better (some books offer -120 on 10-pointers)

10-Point vs 6-Point: The EV Comparison

The 10-point teaser can offer a larger edge, but qualifying games are much rarer. Across a typical NFL Sunday, you might find 3-4 Wong-qualifying 6-point teasers but only 0-1 qualifying 10-pointers. Your edge analysis should account for sample size.

Real Game Examples: Wong Teasers in the 2025-26 NFL Season

Example 1 — Classic Wong Through 3

Week 8: Ravens at Texans — Baltimore -1.5, Total 43.5

• Teased to: Ravens +4.5 (crossed through 3 ✅)
• Road favorite ✅
• Total under 49 ✅
• Key number 3: ✅ (moved from -1.5 through 3 to +4.5)
• Key number 7: ❌ (didn't reach 7)

Verdict: Partial qualifier — crosses 3 but not 7. Still a decent leg when paired with a fully qualifying game. Final score: Ravens 24, Texans 20. Teaser wins by 4.5 points.

Example 2 — Crossing Through 7

Week 11: Cowboys at Giants — Dallas -8.5, Total 41

• Teased to: Cowboys -2.5 (crossed through 7 AND 3 ✅)
• Road favorite ✅
• Total under 49 ✅
• Key number 3: ✅ (moved through 3)
• Key number 7: ✅ (moved through 7)

Verdict: Perfect qualifier — all five rules met. This is the textbook Wong Teaser leg. Final score: Cowboys 27, Giants 20 (margin of exactly 7). Without the teaser, you'd have lost on -8.5. With it, you covered -2.5 with room to spare.

Example 3 — A Game That Doesn't Qualify

Week 15: Dolphins at Bills — Buffalo -13.5, Total 52

• Teased to: Bills -7.5 (doesn't cross through 3 — still above 7 ✅)
• Home favorite ❌ (not road)
• Total over 49 ❌
• Key number 3: ❌
• Key number 7: Lands ON 7.5, barely crosses ⚠️

Verdict: Not qualified — high total, home favorite, doesn't meaningfully cross both key numbers. A hedge calculator might be more useful here than a teaser.

Best Practices for Wong Teasers in 2026

Bankroll Management for Teaser Bets

The Wong Teaser edge is thin (~+1.7% ROI), which means variance matters. You need a bankroll large enough to weather losing streaks without going bust.

Rules of thumb:

• Bet 1-2% of your bankroll per teaser (e.g., $22-$44 on a $2,200 bankroll)
• Never chase losses by increasing teaser size after a loss
• Track results over 200+ teasers before evaluating — read our Kelly Criterion guide for optimal sizing
• Use a Kelly calculator with a conservative 50% Kelly fraction for teasers

Line Shopping for the Best Teaser Odds

Not all -110 teasers are created equal. Key differences between books:

The push rule is critical. If one leg pushes and the other wins, a "reduce" book pays your bet as a straight wager. A "loss" book counts the whole teaser as a loss. Always confirm push rules before placing your first teaser at any book.

Compare lines using our odds converter to ensure you're getting true -110 value and not paying hidden vig.

Common Wong Teaser Mistakes

1. Adding a third leg: Three-team teasers look tempting at +150 or +180, but the third leg drops your win probability below break-even. Stick to two teams.
2. Teasing through only one key number: A teaser that crosses 3 but not 7 (or vice versa) has a reduced edge. Both numbers matter — crossing just one makes it a marginal play at best.
3. Ignoring the total: High totals (50+) mean more variance and more unpredictable margins. That 49 threshold isn't arbitrary — it's where the data shows the edge begins to erode.
4. Paying -120 or worse: The difference between -110 and -120 erases most of the Wong Teaser edge. If your book only offers -120 on 6-point teasers, the math barely works. At -130, it doesn't.
5. Forcing teasers every week: Some weeks have zero qualifying games. That's fine. Patience is part of the strategy. Compare this discipline to betting system approaches where knowing when NOT to bet is half the battle.

Wong Teaser Strategy FAQ

If you're looking to deepen your NFL betting knowledge, check out our full NFL betting strategy guide which covers Wong Teasers alongside props, futures, and system plays. For cross-sport perspectives, see our NBA betting system analysis and MLB underdog strategy guide.

For the math behind teaser evaluation, our parlay odds calculator explains the combinatorial probability that underpins all multi-leg bets. And if you want to understand how sportsbooks price these bets, the alt spread guide and alternate spread explainer break down how key numbers affect line movement.