Mississippi Stud Strategy: The Definitive Math Guide

Mississippi Stud Poker is unique among casino table games. It is one of the few games where you can increase your bet when you are winning, leading to payouts of up to 500x your wager.

But beware: it is a game of extreme variance. You will fold often. You will bleed small chips. But when you hit a monster hand, the 3x multiplier on every street creates a jackpot-like win.

To survive the variance and lower the house edge to 1.37%, you must follow the optimal strategy strictly.

🧠 Interactive Strategy Trainer

Don't guess. Use our calculator to learn the perfect move for any hand.

💰 The Payout Table & Probability

Before learning the strategy, you must know what you are aiming for. Notice that a Pair of 6s to 10s is a "Push" (you win 1:1 on bets, but Ante pushes, essentially returning your money).

Key Takeaway: You will lose or push on almost 77% of hands. The profit comes from maximizing bets on that top 23%.

📜 Optimal Strategy Breakdown (Street by Street)

3rd Street (Your 2 Hole Cards)

This is the only decision made with just 2 cards.

The "Points" System:

• High Card (J, Q, K, A): 2 Points
• Middle Card (6, 7, 8, 9, 10): 1 Point
• Low Card (2, 3, 4, 5): 0 Points

4th Street (3 Cards Total)

You now have one community card.

• Bet 3x if:
  • You have a "Paying Hand" (Pair 6s+).
  • Royal Flush Draw (e.g., Ah Kh Jh).
  • Straight Flush Draw with no gaps (e.g., 7h 8h 9h).
• Bet 1x if:
  • Any other Pair (22-55).
  • Flush Draw (3 suited cards).
  • Open-Ended Straight Draw (e.g., 6-7-8).
  • 3 High Cards (e.g., J, Q, K mixed suits).
  • 2 High Cards (e.g., J, K, 2).
• Fold: Everything else.

5th Street (4 Cards Total)

The pot is building. Don't be afraid to fold if you missed.

• Bet 3x if:
  • Paying Hand (Pair 6s+).
  • Any 4-card Flush Draw (e.g., 4 Hearts).
  • Any 4-card Outside Straight Draw (e.g., 5-6-7-8).
• Bet 1x if:
  • Any other Pair (22-55).
  • Inside Straight Draw with 3 High Cards.
• Fold: Missed draws.

🛑 Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Folding Small Pairs (22-55): Many players fold pocket 2s because "they don't pay". Mistake. If you hit a third 2, you get paid 3:1 on all your bets. If you don't improve, you lose the Ante but push the bets. It's a mathematically correct call (or even 3x raise).
2. Betting "Because I Feel Lucky": Betting on "2-4 offsuit" hoping for a straight is the fastest way to go broke. The math is brutal. If the points system says fold, FOLD.
3. Betting 2x: There is almost no scenario where betting 2x is optimal.
   • If the hand is good -> Bet 3x (Max value).
   • If the hand is speculative -> Bet 1x (Min risk).
   • 2x is a "fear bet" that lowers your long-term RTP.

Element of Risk vs House Edge

You will see two numbers quoted for Mississippi Stud:

1. House Edge (4.91%): This is based on the initial Ante. It seems high (like Roulette).
2. Element of Risk (1.37%): This is the average loss divided by the total money bet. Since you often bet 3x+3x+3x (10 units total), the house takes a smaller cut of the total action.

This makes Mississippi Stud one of the best value games in the casino, assuming you play optimal strategy.

More Casino Card Strategy Guides

Looking for other skill-based casino card games? Check out these comprehensive guides:

• Joker Poker optimal strategy - Master video poker with wild cards and 100%+ RTP potential
• Full Pay Deuces Wild strategy - Learn the rare video poker variant with 100.76% RTP and positive expected value
• Spanish 21 Strategy - Blackjack variant with 0.40% house edge
• Kelly Criterion for casino games - Optimal bet sizing for any game with an edge