Blackjack Losing Streak Odds: Probability of Losing 2–20 Hands (2026)

You're five hands into a blackjack session and on a brutal losing streak — every single hand gone. The dealer flips over a 20 for the sixth time, and your 18 is dead again. You're starting to wonder: is this table cursed, or is the universe just messing with you?

Here's the reality: losing 5 hands in a row happens about once every 23 hands. That's not a curse — that's Tuesday night at the casino. And losing 8 in a row? About 1 in 148. You'll see it happen if you play regularly.

Most gambling sites give you vague reassurances or flat-out wrong math. We built an actual probability table with every streak from 2 to 20 hands, an interactive calculator that models your specific table rules, and a bankroll breakdown that shows exactly how much damage each streak does to your wallet. Updated for 2026 with mathematically verified data.

Quick Summary — Key Probability Reference

Key Numbers Every Player Should Know

Based on P(loss) = 53.6% per resolved hand (excluding pushes). Standard 6-deck, S17 rules.

When to Worry (and When Not To)

• 3-5 hand streak: Completely normal. Happens multiple times per session. Don't change anything.
• 6-8 hand streak: Annoying, but expected once every few sessions. Stick to flat betting.
• 9-12 hand streak: Rare but not impossible. This is where bankroll management saves you.
• 13+ hand streak: Genuinely unusual. If you're playing basic strategy, it's still just math — not a rigged table.

What Is the Probability of Losing a Single Blackjack Hand?

This is where most gambling sites get it wrong. You'll see numbers like 48%, 49.1%, 52.6%, or 53.6% thrown around — and they're all technically "correct" depending on what's being counted. Here's why.

With Pushes: 49.1% Loss Rate

In a standard 6-deck blackjack game (dealer stands on soft 17, 3:2 payout), the outcomes of each hand break down to:

If you count every hand dealt — including pushes — your loss rate is 49.1%. This is the number most UK casino blogs use (like the competitors ranking for this keyword right now).

Without Pushes: 53.6% Loss Rate

But here's the thing: pushes don't break a streak. If you lose 4 hands, push one, then lose 3 more, that's a 7-hand losing streak on resolved hands. You got your money back on the push, but you never actually won.

When we remove pushes and only count hands that were decided:

This is the more accurate number for streak calculations. It's the standard used by Wizard of Odds and professional gambling mathematicians.

Why Different Sources Show Different Numbers

Quick Rule of Thumb

Use 53.6% for streak calculations (the "how likely am I to lose X in a row?" question). Use 49.1% for "what percentage of all my hands will I lose?" Both are correct — they answer different questions.

For the exact house edge at your specific table, try our house edge calculator — it accounts for deck count, dealer rules, and payout ratios.

Complete Losing Streak Probability Table: 2–20 Hands (2026)

This is what you came here for. The complete probability table for losing consecutive blackjack hands, showing both calculation methods.

How to Read This Table

• P (no pushes) = probability using 53.6% loss rate. Best for "will I lose X resolved hands in a row?"
• P (with pushes) = probability using 49.1% loss rate. More conservative estimate
• "1 in X" = how many hands (on average) before this streak occurs
• Expected per 500 hands = how many times you'd see this streak in a long session

The Full Probability Table

What "1 in X" Actually Means in Practice

A common mistake: "1 in 148" does NOT mean you'll see an 8-hand losing streak once every 148 hands for certain. It means each sequence of 8 hands has a 0.68% chance of being all losses. Over 148 hands, the probability of experiencing at least one such streak is roughly 63% (1 - 1/e).

In a typical 4-hour session (~280 hands), the probability of hitting at least one 8-hand losing streak is roughly 85%. That's not bad luck — that's expected.

Simulate your own session with our session simulator to see how streaks play out over hundreds of hands.

Winning Streak Probabilities: The Other Side

Losing streaks get all the attention, but winning streaks are equally important — and slightly harder to achieve because of the house edge.

Why Winning Streaks Are Shorter Than Losing Ones

Since P(win) = 46.4% per resolved hand and P(loss) = 53.6%, winning streaks shrink faster. After 5 hands:

• 5 losses in a row: 4.4% probability
• 5 wins in a row: 2.2% probability

That's a 2x difference. Over longer streaks, the gap widens dramatically.

Winning vs Losing: Side-by-Side Comparison

The pattern is clear: a 10-hand losing streak is 4 times more likely than a 10-hand winning streak. This asymmetry is the house edge in action — and it's why casinos always win long-term.

Check your win probability for any specific hand with our win probability calculator.

How House Rules Change Streak Probabilities

Not all blackjack tables are created equal. The specific rules at your table directly affect your loss probability, which compounds across streaks.

Single Deck vs 6-Deck vs 8-Deck

Single deck gives you the best odds — your 5-hand streak probability drops from 4.4% to 3.8%. Over hundreds of hands, that difference compounds. For Spanish 21 (which removes all 10s from the deck), the probabilities shift even further — see our Spanish 21 strategy guide.

Dealer Stands on Soft 17 vs Hits

When the dealer hits on soft 17 (H17), the house edge increases by about 0.2%. This shifts P(loss) from 53.6% to roughly 54.4%, making streaks slightly more likely:

• 5-hand streak (S17): 4.4% → 5-hand streak (H17): 4.8%
• 10-hand streak (S17): 0.20% → 10-hand streak (H17): 0.23%

Small difference per hand. Real difference over a session.

3:2 vs 6:5 Blackjack Payout Impact

This is the big one. A 6:5 payout on blackjack (instead of the standard 3:2) increases the house edge by about 1.4%. That shifts P(loss) to roughly 55.8%:

The takeaway: Avoid 6:5 tables. Your losing streaks will be longer, more frequent, and more expensive. Use our house edge calculator to see the exact impact of any rule combination.

What a Losing Streak Does to Your Bankroll

Numbers on a probability table are one thing. Watching your chips disappear is another. Here's what different streaks actually cost you.

Flat Betting: The Safe Approach

With flat betting (same bet every hand), the damage from a losing streak is linear and predictable:

Painful? Sure. But survivable with proper bankroll management. The general rule: bring 40-50x your bet size as session bankroll. For $10 bets, that's $400-500. Calculate your ideal bankroll with our bankroll calculator. See how Dana White manages variance at VIP tables using short sessions and strict stop-wins — a real-world example of bankroll discipline at extreme stakes. And while you're managing losses, make sure you're not making them worse — splitting 10s is one of the costliest mistakes players make during a losing streak. When celebrity gambler claims about blackjack streaks go viral, remember: no amount of "feeling the deck" changes these probabilities.

Martingale Trap: Why Doubling Destroys You

The Martingale system (double your bet after every loss) promises that one win recovers everything. Here's what it actually looks like during an 8-hand losing streak:

Martingale 8-Hand Streak: $2,550 Gone

That's $2,550 lost chasing $10 in profit. And an 8-hand streak has a 0.68% probability — meaning in every 148 sequences of 8 hands, you'll hit one. Over a weekend of play? It's practically guaranteed.

This is why every professional gambler uses flat betting. The math doesn't lie. See for yourself with our Martingale simulator.

Why Progressive Systems Always Fail

It's not just Martingale. Every system that increases bets after losses (Fibonacci, Labouchere, D'Alembert) has the same fundamental flaw: they require infinite bankroll and no table limits to work. In reality, you'll hit the table maximum or run out of money before "catching up." Read our deep dive on Martingale vs Fibonacci for the full mathematical proof. And if blackjack streaks feel brutal, lottery-style games like keno are even worse — see how variance works in keno where the house edge and payout volatility dwarf anything at the blackjack table.

How Much Bankroll Do You Actually Need?

Based on streak probability and your risk tolerance:

For most players, 40-50x bet size is the sweet spot. And keep in mind: even if you break even at the table, the IRS might still take a cut — learn how the new tax law turns break-even into a tax bill under the 2026 OBBBA rules. Calculate your exact risk with our risk of ruin calculator. Another way to limit streak damage: learn when to surrender bad hands — giving up half your bet beats losing the full amount on hopeless 16s. Curious about rules that actually work in your favor? 6 Card Charlie is one of the few rules that genuinely reduces the house edge. And if you're exploring live dealer variants with multiplier mechanics, Gravity Blackjack adds wild variance to side bets — making streak management even more important.

FAQ

Can you lose 10 times in a row in blackjack?

Yes, and it happens more often than you'd think. The probability is about 0.2% per sequence (1 in 500). In a 4-hour session of ~280 hands, there's roughly a 45% chance you'll experience at least one 10-hand losing streak. It's not a sign of a bad table — it's basic probability.

What is the longest losing streak ever recorded in blackjack?

No official record exists, but mathematically, a 20-hand streak (probability ~1 in 200,000) is virtually certain over a lifetime of play. Dealers regularly report witnessing 15-20+ hand streaks. The insight: with enough hands, even incredibly unlikely events become inevitable. This is why the gambler's fallacy is so dangerous — past results don't affect future hands.

Should I increase my bet after a losing streak?

No. Each hand is independent — the cards have no memory. Increasing bets after losses (progressive systems) doesn't change the underlying math. It only amplifies your losses when the streak continues. An 8-hand Martingale progression starting at $10 costs $2,550. Flat betting the same streak costs $80. The choice is clear.

Does card counting help prevent losing streaks?

Card counting doesn't prevent streaks — it slightly shifts the odds in your favor during favorable counts. Even perfect counting leaves you with a 1-2% edge, meaning you'll still experience all the same losing streaks. The difference is that your average loss per hand is lower, so streaks sting less over thousands of hands. Short-term variance is still brutal.

Is it normal to lose 5 hands in a row?

Completely normal. A 5-hand losing streak has a 4.4% probability, meaning it happens roughly once every 23 resolved hands. In a standard session of 70 hands per hour, you can expect a 5-hand streak every 1-2 hours. If this surprises you, your expectations for blackjack need recalibrating — the house always has the edge.

How do I protect my bankroll during a losing streak?

Three rules: (1) Use flat betting — same bet every hand, no exceptions. (2) Bring 40-50x your bet size as session bankroll ($400-500 for $10 bets). (3) Set a stop-loss at 30-40% of your bankroll and walk away if you hit it. This gives you a ~95% survival rate through normal session variance. Our bankroll calculator can model your specific situation.

Related Guides

• Martingale vs Fibonacci — which progressive system loses slower?
• Spanish 21 Strategy Cheat Sheet — optimal play for this popular variant
• 6 Card Charlie Rule — a rule that actually favors the player
• Match the Dealer Side Bet — is this side bet worth it?
• Gambler's Fallacy — why past results don't predict future hands
• 24+8 Roulette Strategy — covering 86% of the wheel doesn't eliminate streaks, but it changes how they feel
• 4 Card Keno Strategy — how variance and probability play out in multi-card keno
• Caveman Keno Strategy — egg multipliers, odds tables, and bankroll tips for keno

Data in this article is based on standard 6-deck blackjack rules (dealer stands on soft 17, 3:2 payout, double after split allowed). Streak probabilities calculated using P(loss) = 53.6% per resolved hand, verified against Wizard of Odds methodology. All calculations updated February 2026. Use our house edge calculator for rules-specific analysis.