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Match the Dealer Blackjack: Complete Side Bet Guide
Picture this: The dealer flips their upcard — it's a 7. You glance down at your hand and see 7♣ sitting right there. That's a match. And if you had a dollar on the Match the Dealer side bet, you just turned 4 while your main hand hasn't even started yet.
That's the appeal of Match the Dealer (MTD) in a nutshell: a simple, low-stakes side bet that pays out before the blackjack hand even plays out. No strategy decisions, no counting, just pure pattern matching.
But here's what most players miss: Not all MTD games are created equal. The paytable, the number of decks, even which casino you're in — all of these change the house edge dramatically. One table might cost you 3% per bet, another might eat 6%+. By the end of this guide, you'll know exactly which tables to play and which to walk past.
TL;DR — Quick Strategy Table
No time? Here's the 30-second version:
| Deck Count | Typical House Edge | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 deck | 2.5%–3.5% | Only on generous paytable (no suited matches possible) |
| 2 decks | 3.5%–4.5% | Marginal — check paytable carefully |
| 4 decks | 3.0%–4.0% | Good — suited matches start adding value |
| 6 decks | 3.0%–3.8% | Best balance of odds and payouts |
| 8 decks | 3.0%–3.5% | Best odds on most paytables |
Golden rule: More decks + generous paytable = lower house edge. If suited match pays 11:1 or better, it's a reasonable side bet.
Use our House Edge Calculator to compare MTD against any other casino bet.
What Is Match the Dealer?
Match the Dealer is a side bet in blackjack — it has nothing to do with your main blackjack hand. Think of it as a completely separate mini-game running alongside regular blackjack.
The concept is dead simple: Before the hand is dealt, you place a small side bet (25 at most tables). Then you receive your two cards and the dealer shows their upcard. If the rank of either of your cards matches the dealer's upcard, you win.
There are three types of matches:
| Match Type | What It Means | Example | Typical Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-suited Match | Same rank, different suit | Your 7♣ vs dealer's 7♥ | 4:1 |
| Suited Match | Same rank AND same suit | Your 7♣ vs dealer's 7♣ | 11:1 |
| Both Cards Match | Both your cards match dealer | Your 7♣ K♠ vs dealer's 7♥ | 4:1 + varies |
Where to find it: MTD is one of the most widely available blackjack side bets in North America. You'll find it at Caesars properties, MGM Resorts, many tribal casinos, and a growing number of online blackjack tables. Look for a small betting circle marked "MTD" or "Match" to the left of your main betting spot.
Here's the thing most players don't realize: the side bet result is completely independent of your blackjack hand. You could bust on your main hand and still collect on the match. Or you could hit a blackjack natural and lose the side bet. They're two separate universes. If you're looking for blackjack rules that actually reduce the house edge instead of adding side bets, check out our 6 Card Charlie rule guide.
How It Works — Step by Step
Step 1: Place Your Side Bet
Before any cards are dealt, put your MTD bet in the designated circle. Most tables allow 25. The side bet is always optional.
Step 2: Receive Your Two Cards
The dealer deals normally — you get two cards face up (in shoe games) or face down (in hand-held games).
Step 3: Dealer Shows Upcard
The dealer places their upcard face up. This is the card your hand is compared against.
Step 4: Check for Matches
The dealer (or software, in online games) compares your two cards to the upcard:
- No match → Side bet loses. Your 25 is gone.
- One non-suited match → You win 4:1 (or whatever the paytable says).
- One suited match → You win 11:1+ depending on paytable.
- Two matches → Each match pays separately. Double suited? Jackpot territory.
Step 5: Play Your Main Hand Normally
The MTD bet resolves instantly. Now you play your blackjack hand using optimal basic strategy — the side bet doesn't change anything about how you should play.
Real Example: A $5 Side Bet
You place 25 on your main hand.
- Your cards: Q♠ 8♦
- Dealer upcard: Q♥
- Result: Non-suited match (Q matches Q, different suits)
- Payout: 20 profit** on the side bet
Your main hand? You've got Q-8 against a Q. Play continues normally. But you're already $20 ahead before drawing a single card.
Now imagine your cards were Q♠ Q♥ against dealer's Q♦ — that's TWO non-suited matches. On most paytables, that's 8:1 on your 40 profit**.
Paytable Comparison
Here's the critical part: different casinos use different paytables, and the payout differences are significant. Here are the most common variants you'll encounter:
| Match Type | Paytable A (6-deck) | Paytable B (6-deck) | Paytable C (8-deck) | Paytable D (8-deck) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-suited Match (1 card) | 4:1 | 3:1 | 4:1 | 3:1 |
| Suited Match (1 card) | 11:1 | 12:1 | 11:1 | 14:1 |
| 2 Non-suited Matches | 8:1 | 6:1 | 8:1 | 6:1 |
| 2 Suited Matches | 22:1 | 25:1 | 22:1 | 29:1 |
| 1 Suited + 1 Non-suited | 15:1 | 14:1 | 15:1 | 16:1 |
| House Edge | ~3.8% | ~4.1% | ~3.4% | ~3.1% |
The takeaway: Paytable D on an 8-deck game gives you the best odds at ~3.1%. Paytable B on a 6-deck game is the worst at ~4.1%. Before you sit down, look at the posted paytable — especially the suited match payout. If suited match pays 14:1, you're at a better table than one paying 11:1.
Check how these house edges translate into real money losses with our Loss Calculator.
House Edge by Deck Count
This is the most important strategic information for Match the Dealer. The number of decks changes everything because it directly affects the probability of suited matches.
Why decks matter:
- Single deck (52 cards): There's only ONE of each specific card (e.g., one 7♣). A suited match is impossible — there's no second 7♣ in the deck. You can only get non-suited matches.
- 6-deck shoe (312 cards): There are SIX copies of each specific card. Suited matches become realistic, and they pay the most.
- 8-deck shoe (416 cards): Even more suited match opportunities. This is where the best odds live.
| Deck Count | Non-suited Match Prob. | Suited Match Prob. | Overall House Edge (Paytable A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.8% | 0.0% | ~3.5% |
| 2 | 11.7% | 1.0% | ~4.0% |
| 4 | 11.6% | 2.3% | ~3.7% |
| 6 | 11.5% | 2.8% | ~3.5% |
| 8 | 11.5% | 3.0% | ~3.1% |
House Edge by Number of Decks
How deck count affects the house edge for Match the Dealer across different paytables
More decks usually mean better odds for Match the Dealer. Look for 6-deck or 8-deck shoes with generous paytables.
Simple rule: For Match the Dealer, more decks = better odds (on most paytables). This is the opposite of main blackjack, where fewer decks favor the player. Ironic, right?
Want to see how this affects a full session? Plug the numbers into our Session Simulator to see realistic outcomes over 200+ hands.
Math & Expected Value
Let's get into the numbers — but I'll keep it readable.
The Expected Value Formula
In plain English: Add up the probability of each winning outcome times its payout, then subtract the probability of losing times your bet. If the number is negative, the house has an edge (spoiler: it always is).
Concrete example on an 8-deck game (Paytable A):
| Outcome | Probability | Payout | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| No match | 78.2% | -$1.00 | -$0.782 |
| 1 Non-suited match | 14.7% | +$4.00 | +$0.588 |
| 1 Suited match | 4.5% | +$11.00 | +$0.495 |
| 2 Non-suited matches | 1.6% | +$8.00 | +$0.128 |
| 1 Suited + 1 Non-suited | 0.8% | +$15.00 | +$0.120 |
| 2 Suited matches | 0.2% | +$22.00 | +$0.044 |
| Total EV per $1 | -$0.034 |
That -1 you bet, you lose 3.4 cents on average. Expressed as a percentage: 3.4% house edge.
Compare that to our RTP Calculator — 3.4% house edge means 96.6% RTP, which is better than most slot machines and many other table game side bets.
Interactive Calculator
Want to know the exact house edge for YOUR game? Plug in your deck count and paytable:
Match the Dealer Calculator
Calculate house edge and match probabilities for your specific game setup
Results
Match Probabilities
The calculator shows the house edge, expected value per dollar bet, and the probability of each match outcome. Use it before your next casino visit to know exactly what you're getting into.
For broader bankroll planning, combine this with our Casino Bankroll Calculator to figure out how much to bring for a session that includes side bets.
Match the Dealer vs Other Side Bets
How does MTD stack up against other popular blackjack and casino side bets?
| Side Bet | House Edge | Luck vs Skill | Max Payout | Available At |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match the Dealer | 3.1%–4.1% | Pure luck | 29:1 | Most blackjack tables |
| Perfect Pairs | 2.0%–7.9% | Pure luck | 30:1 | Many blackjack tables |
| 21+3 | 3.2%–8.0% | Pure luck | 100:1 | Some blackjack tables |
| Insurance | 7.4% | Pure luck | 2:1 | Every blackjack table |
| Lucky Lucky | 5.0%–25.0% | Pure luck | 200:1 | Select casinos |
| Royal Match | 3.7%–6.7% | Pure luck | 25:1 | Rare |
The verdict: MTD isn't the absolute best side bet (some Perfect Pairs paytables beat it), but it's consistently solid across different setups. And it's MUCH better than Insurance — which might be the worst bet on any blackjack table.
Want to see how these side bets compare in a live variant with random multipliers? Gravity Blackjack offers Perfect Pairs, 21+3, Dealer Bust, and Lucky Ladies — all with up to 25x multiplier boosts.
For a full breakdown of how house edge affects your bottom line, check our Win Probability Calculator.
Common Mistakes
Mistake #1: Playing MTD in a Single-Deck Game
What happens: You bet $5 on Match the Dealer at a single-deck table. The paytable advertises suited match payouts — but with one deck, suited matches are literally impossible.
Why it hurts: You're paying the same side bet but can never hit the highest-paying outcomes. The effective house edge is higher than the posted numbers suggest.
The fix: Only play MTD at tables using 4+ decks. Six or eight decks is ideal.
Mistake #2: Betting Max ($25) on Every Hand
What happens: "Match the Dealer is fun!" So you slam $25 on the side bet every single hand for 3 hours.
Why it hurts: At 70 hands/hour with a 3.5% house edge, that's 70 × 61.25/hour** in expected losses just on the side bet. That's on top of whatever you're losing on main blackjack.
The fix: Keep side bets small — 5. Treat MTD as entertainment, not a strategy. Budget no more than 5-10% of your session bankroll for side bets total.
Mistake #3: Not Checking the Paytable Before Sitting Down
What happens: You assume all MTD tables pay the same. They don't.
Why it hurts: The difference between Paytable A and Paytable B can be a full percentage point of house edge. Over a 4-hour session, that's real money.
The fix: Look at the table felt or the posted paytable card. Check the suited match payout — 11:1 is average, 14:1 is good, anything below 10:1 is bad.
Mistake #4: Thinking MTD Affects Main Blackjack Strategy
What happens: "I have a match on the side bet, so I should stand even though basic strategy says hit."
Why it hurts: The side bet resolves INSTANTLY and independently. Whether you won or lost the match has zero impact on the optimal play for your main hand. Changing your main strategy because of a side bet result costs you money on the main game.
The fix: Play basic strategy on your main hand 100% of the time, regardless of side bet outcomes. Use our House Edge Calculator to see how deviating from basic strategy increases the house edge. While side bets add house edge, Dana White's strategy avoids them entirely — focusing purely on the main game with optimal rules. Another common deviation: splitting 10s when the count looks favorable — which costs you money in almost every situation. A smarter edge play: learn when to surrender bad hands — it actually saves money, unlike side bets. Be wary of what self-proclaimed pros recommend on social media — most "secret" strategies are just basic strategy repackaged.
Mistake #5: Chasing Losses on Side Bets
What happens: You lose 10 side bets in a row and double your next one to "get it back."
Why it hurts: Side bets are independent events. Past results don't influence future ones. Doubling up just increases your average loss. This is the same trap as any progressive betting system — the math doesn't change. Curious just how often losing streaks happen in blackjack? Losing 10 in a row has about a 0.2% chance per sequence — but across a full session, it's far more likely than you think.
The fix: Flat-bet your side bets. 5 every time. Never vary based on results.
Bankroll Management for Side Bets
Here's a practical framework for incorporating MTD into your blackjack sessions:
The 5-10% Rule
Never allocate more than 5-10% of your total session bankroll to side bets. Here's what that looks like:
| Session Bankroll | Max Side Bet Budget | Suggested MTD Bet |
|---|---|---|
| $200 | 20 | $1/hand for 10-20 hands |
| $500 | 50 | 2/hand |
| $1,000 | 100 | 5/hand |
| $2,000 | 200 | $5/hand |
When to Skip Side Bets Entirely
- Single or double-deck games — House edge too high on MTD
- Paytable shows suited match below 10:1 — Not worth it
- You're playing on minimum bankroll — Focus on main game
- You're card counting — Side bets add variance and draw attention
For detailed bankroll sizing, use our Casino Bankroll Calculator and Risk of Ruin Calculator.
Strategy Tips for Match the Dealer
Since MTD is a pure luck bet (no decisions after placing it), "strategy" really means table selection and bankroll discipline:
- Choose 6-deck or 8-deck shoes — Best match probabilities
- Find the best paytable — Suited match ≥ 12:1, both suited ≥ 25:1
- Bet small, bet flat — 5 per hand, never increase after losses
- Set a side bet budget — 5-10% of session bankroll, stop when it's gone
- Ignore side bet results when playing main hand — Basic strategy doesn't change
Want to see how disciplined betting grows your bankroll over time? Check our Bankroll Growth Calculator.
Match the Dealer Online vs Live
| Feature | Live Casino | Online Casino |
|---|---|---|
| Deck Count | 6 or 8 (check table) | Usually 6 or 8 |
| Paytable | Varies by property | Varies by software |
| Bet Limits | 25 typical | 100+ |
| Speed | ~70 hands/hour | ~200+ hands/hour |
| Suited Match Odds | Same math | Same math |
| Key Difference | Check felt for paytable | Check rules/info tab |
Warning about online speed: Online blackjack deals 2-3x faster than live games. If you're betting 5 × 0.035 = **0.50–$1) or only placing the side bet every few hands.
Use our Loss Calculator to see the hourly cost at your betting speed.
Quick Reference Card
Bookmark this for your next casino visit:
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Best deck count | 6 or 8 decks |
| Best paytable | Suited match ≥ 12:1 |
| Target house edge | Under 3.5% |
| Max side bet | 5-10% of session bankroll |
| Bet sizing | 5 flat |
| Skip when | Single deck, bad paytable, small bankroll |
| Affects main strategy? | No, never |
Final Thoughts
Match the Dealer is one of the better side bets you'll find at a blackjack table. It's simple, it resolves quickly, and on the right paytable it carries a house edge that's lower than most slot machines. Is it a winning bet? No — no side bet is, long-term. But if you're going to throw a dollar or two on a side bet for fun, MTD is one of the smarter choices.
What to remember:
- More decks = better odds (6-deck or 8-deck ideal)
- Check the paytable — suited match payout is the key number
- Keep side bets small and flat (5)
- Never let side bet results change your main blackjack strategy
- Budget 5-10% of your session bankroll for all side bets combined
Now you know more about Match the Dealer than 99% of players at the table. Use it wisely.
Want to sharpen your overall casino game? Check out:
- House Edge Calculator — Compare house edges across all games
- RTP Calculator — Calculate long-term return to player
- Session Simulator — Simulate realistic casino sessions
- Kelly Criterion Calculator — Optimal bet sizing for any game
- Mississippi Stud Strategy Guide — Another table game strategy
- 3 Shot Poker Guide — Complete poker variant guide
- Pai Gow Tiles Strategy — Another casino game guide
- 6 Card Charlie Blackjack Rule — Blackjack rules that reduce the house edge
- Triple Double Bonus Poker Complete Guide — Video poker variant with 0.42% house edge
Interested in poker-based side bets? Cajun Stud offers three unique ones with different house edges. For roulette players, the 24+8 strategy for covering 32 numbers per spin is another structured approach to casino betting with transparent math.
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Evgeny Volkov
Verified ExpertOver 10 years developing software for the gaming industry. Advanced degree in Mathematics. Specializing in probability analysis, RNG algorithms, and mathematical gambling models.